Mojtaba Khamenei on the Brink of Leadership: Is the IRGC Handing the "Keys" of Iran to the Late Supreme Leader's Son?

The strike that hit the Assembly of Experts building in Qom just hours ago wasn't just another military raid amid escalating tensions. From where I stand, that very moment was the real declaration that one era had ended and another, darker and more uncertain one, had begun. As Israeli rockets pounded the site, the members gathered inside – or those who were left – were on the verge of deciding the fate of the Islamic Republic's highest office. Leaks emerging from both Tehran and London all point in one direction: Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader, is the man the Revolutionary Guard has thrown its considerable weight behind to succeed his father.

"The Shadowy Hand" Steps into the Light: Why Mojtaba?

I've been following the case of Mojtaba Shirazi (a reference to his family lineage) for years, and have written about him as the "man in the shadows" who runs his mother's economic empire and oversees the appointments of top security chiefs. What happened in recent days came as no surprise to anyone truly watching the Iranian scene. The surprise was in how quickly the cards were revealed. The moment Ali Khamenei was assassinated, the talk shifted from the "Assembly of Experts" as a constitutional body to a "Council Under Guard," where Meysam Motiei and other IRGC insiders are the real kingmakers. The Revolutionary Guard knows that any candidate other than Mojtaba would open the door to an ideological battle over the very foundations of the revolution, while Mojtaba guarantees the continuation of the "regime" in the name of both religion and wealth.

The Bombing of Qom: A Desperate Attempt to Flip the Table?

The Israeli strike wasn't random; it was a precise targeting of the upcoming election process for Iran's next Supreme Leader. According to sources with knowledge of what goes on behind closed doors, the building in Qom was in the middle of vote counting or final consultations when the aircraft appeared. Tehran denied its main headquarters was hit, calling it "old and secondary." But satellite imagery and footage obtained by our research team confirm the exact opposite.

Here's the crux of the matter: why would Israel bomb an electoral building if it were empty? And why would Tel Aviv proudly announce it had disrupted the counting process? The answer is simple: because the timing of the succession was the regime's "Achilles' heel," and Israel tried to exploit this opening. But it seems Tehran was quicker; the announcement of Mojtaba's selection was pushed through with immediate military and political pressure to head off any chaos that Israel, or even the internal opposition represented by Hashemi's reformist faction, could exploit.

What Does the "Leader's Son" Taking the Helm Mean?

If the news is confirmed in the coming hours – and I'd bet it's only a matter of time – Iran is entering a completely new phase. The transfer of power from father to son transforms the system from "Velayat-e Faqih" (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist) to "Velayat-e Family" (Guardianship of the Family). To me, this is a radical shift. It's no longer about the consensus of senior clerics, but about a security-military front run by one family under a religious cloak. And this, so to speak, is where the major commercial and investment opportunity lies for the Gulf states, especially the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia:

• Geopolitically: Greater Iranian intransigence on the nuclear file and in negotiations with the West, meaning further regional escalation that could reshuffle energy alliances.
• Economically: The continued control of the "Mojtaba network" over vital sectors (from oil to contracting) means any breakthrough with Iran will hinge on approval from this private network, not just the central government.
• On the security front: The IRGC, which pushed Mojtaba forward, will become the undisputed top authority, increasing the likelihood of proxy confrontations with Israel.

One of the most telling details was the leak from within Israeli decision-making circles right after the strike, which essentially said: "It doesn't matter who gets elected today, their fate is sealed; only the Iranian people will choose their next leader." This isn't just propaganda; it's an admission that Israel sees this hereditary succession as a chance to deepen the rift between the people and the regime. In response, I expect Tehran's reaction will be to accelerate its nuclear program as a bargaining chip and a way to boost domestic legitimacy.

The Bottom Line: Facing an Inherited "Republic of Fear"

In the end, it seems Mojtaba Khamenei will don his father's robes, but the burden will be much heavier. The regional landscape is ablaze, Iran's economy is on the brink, and the people on the Persian street are exhausted. For us in the region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, this means dealing with a system that is more hardline and less flexible because it lacks even the traditional legitimacy his father once had. The Assembly of Experts election was over before it began, and all that's left is to watch how the "son" manages his father's legacy in a land groaning under the weight of sanctions and missiles.