Jens Stoltenberg returns to Norwegian politics: “The big decisions are coming”

Jens Stoltenberg is back. After wrapping up his role as NATO’s secretary-general, he’s back on Norwegian soil, and within a few weeks, he’s already right in the thick of the political grind. It’s almost as if he never left, but at the same time, everything feels different. The big, heavy issues on the table now are of a completely different magnitude compared to when he left the country to lead the defence alliance.

For those of us who followed Jens Stoltenberg’s first government back in the 2000s, and later Jens Stoltenberg’s second government, which was a real crash course in managing a financial crisis, it’s easy to recognise his style. He has that knack for showing up just when the heat is on and people are starting to wonder who’s really in charge. Now, things are heating up again, but this time, it’s just as much about what’s happening beyond our borders as within them.

The EU’s carbon tariff is knocking at the door

The big elephant in the room right now is the EU’s carbon tariff. This isn’t the kind of issue that just fades away after a report or two. It’s a concrete, weighty political decision that will make its mark on both industry and ordinary folks. I know that people in Jens Stoltenberg’s team have already been in meetings that run well past office hours, because this is simply too important to leave sitting on the back burner. That’s classic Stoltenberg—tackling the big structural issues before they become a crisis no one can handle.

He’s been here before. During Jens Stoltenberg’s second government, it was the banking crisis and falling oil prices that needed taming. Now, it’s the green transition and international tariff barriers on the agenda. There aren’t many in Norwegian politics who have the same network he does after eight years at NATO. He knows the top EU figures and the heavy hitters in the US in a completely different way now than when he stepped down as prime minister. It’s an edge we’ll feel in the negotiations ahead.

When investigations drag on too long

While Stoltenberg now navigates the big, international issues, there are also discussions going on back home that remind us that the rule of law needs to work in everyday life too. I’m thinking particularly of the ongoing investigation in Finnmark. There, defence lawyers are worried about witness influence after police went to the media in a way you rarely see. When cases drag on for years, as we’ve seen in several other major cases, trust in the system starts to fray.

It’s not exactly the kind of case you’d associate with Jens Stoltenberg’s previous governments, but it highlights a problem that has grown over the past few years: the bureaucracy moves too slowly. Back in Jens Stoltenberg’s first government, they probably wouldn’t have imagined an investigation of this kind could go on for years without anyone stepping in. Now, it’s a real challenge that the new-but-old prime minister has to deal with—because businesses, as seen in the fisheries case, need predictability.

• The EU’s carbon tariff – The biggest single issue on the horizon. Will we negotiate a tailored Norwegian adaptation, or go all in with full integration?
• Investigation times – In both the Finnmark case and other cases flagged by internal sources, we’re seeing that the time it takes to investigate has become a burden in itself.
• International experience – Jens Stoltenberg has a network that no other Norwegian politician can match. That will be crucial in dealings with the EU.

Back to the future

What makes this return special is that Jens Stoltenberg isn’t coming back as just any politician. He’s returning as someone who has seen the international machinery from the inside. He knows how decisions are made in Brussels and how to advance Norwegian interests in an increasingly tough geopolitical reality. The question is whether that’s enough to solve the big, unresolved issues that have piled up back home.

Because it’s not just the carbon tariff waiting. There’s a whole range of issues from Jens Stoltenberg’s second government that were never fully wrapped up, and are now simmering in the background. I think we’re going to see a somewhat different Stoltenberg this time. Less of a party politician, more of a statesman. And that might just be what we need more than ever.