Jens Stoltenberg back in Norwegian politics: ‘Now the big calls are coming’

Jens Stoltenberg is back. After finishing up as NATO’s secretary general, he’s landed back on Norwegian soil, and within a few weeks he’s already right in the thick of things politically. It’s almost like he never left, but at the same time, everything’s changed. The big, heavyweight issues on the table now are a whole different kettle of fish compared to when he left to head up the defence alliance.

For those of us who followed Jens Stoltenberg’s first government back in the 2000s, and later Jens Stoltenberg’s second government – a real crash course in handling a financial crisis – it’s easy to recognise his moves. He’s got this knack for showing up just when things are really hitting the fan and most people are starting to wonder who’s actually in charge. Now things are hitting the fan again, but this time it’s just as much about what’s happening beyond our borders as it is within them.

The EU’s carbon tariff is knocking at the door

The big elephant in the room right now is the EU’s carbon tariff. This isn’t something that’s just going to disappear after one or two inquiries. It’s a concrete, weighty political decision that will be felt by both industry and ordinary people. I know that people in Jens Stoltenberg’s team have already been in meetings running well past normal working hours, because this is simply too important to let slide. That’s classic Stoltenberg – tackling the big structural stuff before it becomes a crisis that no one can handle.

He’s been here before. During Jens Stoltenberg’s second government, it was the banking crisis and the oil price drop that needed taming. Now it’s the green transition and international tariff barriers on the agenda. There aren’t many in Norwegian politics with the same network he’s built up after eight years at NATO. He knows the top EU figures and the heavy hitters in the US in a completely different way now than when he left as prime minister. That’s an advantage we’re going to feel in the negotiations ahead.

When investigations drag on too long

While Stoltenberg is now navigating the big, international lines, debates are happening back home that remind us the justice system has to work in practice, day to day. I’m thinking in particular of the ongoing investigation in Finnmark. There, defence lawyers are worried about witness intimidation after police went to the media in a way you don’t often see. When cases drag on for years, like we’ve seen in several other major cases, trust in the system starts to wear thin.

It’s not exactly the sort of issue you associate with Jens Stoltenberg’s previous governments, but it illustrates a problem that has grown larger in recent years: the bureaucracy moves too slowly. Back in Jens Stoltenberg’s first government, they probably wouldn’t have envisioned a case like this dragging on for years without anyone stepping in. Now it’s a real challenge the new-old prime minister has to contend with – because the business community, as in the fisheries case, needs predictability.

• EU carbon tariff – The biggest single issue on the horizon. Will they negotiate a Norwegian adaptation, or go for full integration?
• Investigation timeframes – In both the Finnmark case and others flagged by internal sources, the time investigations take has become a burden in itself.
• International experience – Jens Stoltenberg has a contact network that no other Norwegian politician can match. That’s going to be crucial when dealing with the EU.

Back to the future

What makes this return special is that Jens Stoltenberg isn’t coming back as just any politician. He’s coming back as someone who’s seen the international machinery from the inside. He knows how decisions are made in Brussels and how to advance Norwegian interests in an increasingly tough geopolitical reality. The question is whether that’s enough to solve the big, unresolved issues that have piled up at home.

Because it’s not just the carbon tariff waiting. There’s a whole range of issues from Jens Stoltenberg’s second government that never quite got finished, and are now simmering away. I think we’re going to see a rather different Stoltenberg this time around. Less the party politician, more the statesman. And that might be just what we need, more than ever.