Jens Stoltenberg Returns to Norwegian Politics: “Now Comes the Big Decisions”

Jens Stoltenberg is back. After wrapping up his role as NATO Secretary General, he’s landed back on Norwegian soil, and within just a few weeks, he’s already smack in the middle of the political grind. It’s almost like he never left, yet at the same time, everything is different. The big, weighty issues on the table now are on a completely different scale from when he left the country to lead the defence alliance.

For those of us who followed Jens Stoltenberg’s first government back in the 2000s, and later Jens Stoltenberg’s second government, which was a real crash course in handling a financial crisis, it’s easy to recognise the moves. He has that knack for showing up just when the heat is on, and most people are starting to wonder who’s really in charge. Now the heat is on again, but this time it’s just as much about what’s happening beyond our borders as it is within them.

The EU’s Carbon Tariff is Knocking on the Door

The big elephant in the room right now is the EU’s carbon tariff. This isn’t an issue that’s going to just disappear after a review or two. It’s a concrete, heavy political decision that will have a real impact on both industry and ordinary people. I know that people in Jens Stoltenberg’s team have already been in meetings that run well past the usual workday, because this is simply too important to leave sitting. That’s classic Stoltenberg – tackling the big structural stuff before it turns into a crisis no one can handle.

He’s been here before. During Jens Stoltenberg’s second government, it was the banking crisis and the oil price drop that needed taming. Now it’s the green transition and international tariff barriers. Not many in Norwegian politics have the same kind of network he’s built up after eight years at NATO. He knows the top EU officials and the heavy hitters in the US on a whole different level now compared to when he stepped down as Prime Minister. That’s an advantage we’ll see in the negotiations ahead.

When Investigations Drag On Too Long

While Stoltenberg is now navigating the big international picture, discussions are also happening back home that remind us the justice system needs to work day-to-day. I’m thinking especially of the ongoing investigation in Finnmark. There, defence lawyers are worried about witness intimidation after the police went to the media in a way you rarely see. When cases drag on for years, as we’ve seen in several other major cases, it starts to eat away at trust in the system.

It’s not exactly the kind of case you associate with Jens Stoltenberg’s previous governments, but it illustrates a problem that’s grown bigger in recent years: the bureaucracy is just too slow. Back in Jens Stoltenberg’s first government, they probably wouldn’t have imagined an investigation of this sort could go on for years without anyone stepping in. Now it’s a real challenge that the new, old Prime Minister has to deal with – because business, as in the fisheries case, needs predictability.

• The EU’s carbon tariff – The single biggest issue on the horizon. Will we negotiate a Norwegian adaptation, or go for full integration?
• Investigation times – In both the Finnmark case and other cases internal sources have pointed out, we’re seeing that how long investigations take has become a burden in its own right.
• International experience – Jens Stoltenberg has a network that no other Norwegian politician can match. That’ll be crucial when dealing with the EU.

Back to the Future

What makes this return special is that Jens Stoltenberg isn’t coming back as just any politician. He’s coming back as someone who’s seen the international machinery from the inside. He knows how decisions are made in Brussels and how to advance Norwegian interests in an increasingly tough geopolitical reality. The question is whether that’s enough to solve the big, unresolved issues that have piled up back home.

Because it’s not just the carbon tariff waiting for him. There’s a whole range of issues from Jens Stoltenberg’s second government that were never quite finished, and now they’re simmering away. I think we’re going to see a pretty different Stoltenberg this time around. Less party politician, more statesman. And that might just be what we need more than ever.