Jens Stoltenberg Returns to Norwegian Politics: "The Big Decisions Are Now Upon Us"

Jens Stoltenberg is back. After finishing his role as NATO Secretary General, he has once again set foot on Norwegian soil, and within just a few weeks, he is already right in the thick of everyday politics. It's almost as if he never left, yet at the same time, everything is different. The big, weighty issues now on the table are of a completely different magnitude than when he left the country to lead the defence alliance.

For those of us who followed Jens Stoltenberg's first government in the 2000s, and later Jens Stoltenberg's second government, which proved to be a crash course in handling the financial crisis, it's easy to recognise the moves. He has that knack for showing up just when the heat is on and the public starts wondering who is really in charge. Now, the heat is on again, but this time it's as much about what's happening beyond our borders as it is within them.

The EU's Carbon Border Tariff Knocks on the Door

The elephant in the room right now is the EU's carbon border tariff. This isn't an issue that will just disappear after one or two reviews. It's a concrete, weighty political decision that will be felt by both industry and ordinary people. I understand that Jens Stoltenberg's team has already been in meetings running well past normal working hours, because this is simply too important to leave on the back burner. That's classic Stoltenberg – tackling the big structural issues before they spiral into a crisis that no one can manage.

He's been there before. During Jens Stoltenberg's second government, it was the banking crisis and the fall in oil prices that needed taming. Now, it's the green transition and international tariff barriers. There aren't many in Norwegian politics who have the same network as he does after eight years in NATO. He knows the top EU figures and the heavyweights in the US in a way he simply didn't when he stepped down as prime minister. That's an advantage we'll see play out in the negotiations ahead.

When Investigations Take Too Long

While Stoltenberg now navigates these major international currents, discussions are also happening back home that remind us the justice system has to function on a day-to-day basis too. I'm thinking specifically of the ongoing investigation in Finnmark. There, defence lawyers fear witness intimidation after the police went to the media in a way you rarely see. When cases drag on for years, as we've also seen in several other major cases, trust in the system begins to erode.

This isn't exactly the kind of case associated with Jens Stoltenberg's previous terms in office, but it illustrates a problem that has grown larger in recent years: the bureaucracy moves too slowly. In Jens Stoltenberg's first government, perhaps they wouldn't have foreseen an investigation of this kind dragging on for years without anyone intervening. Now, it's a real challenge that the new-old prime minister has to contend with – because industry, as in the fisheries case, needs predictability.

• EU Carbon Border Tariff – The biggest single issue on the horizon. Will there be a negotiated Norwegian adaptation, or will we go for full integration?
• Investigation Duration – Both in the Finnmark case and in other cases flagged by internal sources, we're seeing that the length of investigations has become a burden in itself.
• International Experience – Jens Stoltenberg has a network that no other Norwegian politician can match. That will be crucial in dealings with the EU.

Back to the Future

What makes this return special is that Jens Stoltenberg isn't coming back as just any politician. He's returning as someone who has seen the international machinery from the inside. He knows how decisions are made in Brussels and how to advance Norwegian interests in an increasingly tough geopolitical reality. The question is whether that will be enough to resolve the major, unresolved issues that have been piling up back home.

Because it's not just the carbon tariff waiting for him. There's a whole host of issues from Jens Stoltenberg's second government that were never quite finished, and are now simmering away. I think we're going to see a rather different Stoltenberg this time around. Less the party politician, more the statesman. And perhaps that's what we need more than ever.