Jens Stoltenberg Back in Norwegian Politics: “Now the Big Decisions Are Coming”
Jens Stoltenberg is back. After finishing up as NATO’s Secretary General, he’s landed back on Norwegian soil, and within a few weeks, he’s already right in the thick of the political day-to-day. It’s almost as if he never left, but at the same time, everything is different. The major, weighty issues now on the table are of a completely different magnitude than when he left the country to lead the defence alliance.
For those of us who followed Jens Stoltenberg’s first cabinet in the 2000s, and later Jens Stoltenberg’s second cabinet which served as a crash course in handling the financial crisis, it’s easy to recognise the moves. He has that knack for showing up just when the heat is on, and people are starting to wonder who’s really in control. Now things are heating up again, but this time it’s just as much about what’s happening beyond our borders as within them.
The EU’s Carbon Levy is Knocking at the Door
The big elephant in the room right now is the EU’s carbon levy. This isn’t something that’s just going to disappear after a review or two. It’s a concrete, heavy political decision that will be felt by both industry and ordinary people. I know that those in Jens Stoltenberg’s team have already been in meetings running well past normal working hours, because this is simply too important to leave sitting. That’s classic Stoltenberg – tackling the big structural issues before they turn into a crisis no one can handle.
He’s been here before. During Jens Stoltenberg’s second cabinet, it was the banking crisis and the oil price drop that needed to be tamed. Now it’s the green transition and international tariff barriers on the agenda. Not many in Norwegian politics have the same network he does after eight years in NATO. He knows the top EU figures and the heavy hitters in the US on a completely different level now than when he stepped down as Prime Minister. That’s an advantage we’ll see in the negotiations ahead.
When Investigations Drag On Too Long
While Stoltenberg is now set to navigate the big international currents, discussions are also taking place at home that remind us the rule of law has to work in day-to-day life too. I’m thinking particularly of the ongoing investigation in Finnmark. There, defence lawyers are worried about witness tampering after police went to the media in a way you rarely see. When cases drag on for years, as we’ve also seen in several other major cases, trust in the system starts to wear thin.
This isn’t exactly the kind of issue associated with Jens Stoltenberg’s previous terms in government, but it illustrates a problem that has grown bigger in recent years: bureaucracy moves too slowly. In Jens Stoltenberg’s first cabinet, you probably wouldn’t have imagined an investigation of this type could go on for years without anyone stepping in. Now it’s a real challenge the new/old Prime Minister has to contend with – because industry, as in the fisheries case, needs predictability.
- The EU’s carbon levy – The biggest single issue on the horizon. Will they negotiate a Norwegian adaptation, or will we go for full integration?
- Investigation times – In both the Finnmark case and other cases pointed out by internal sources, we see that the length of investigations has become a burden in itself.
- International experience – Jens Stoltenberg has a network that no other Norwegian politician can match. That will be crucial when dealing with the EU.
Back to the Future
What makes this return special is that Jens Stoltenberg isn’t coming back as just any politician. He’s coming back as someone who has seen the international machinery from the inside. He knows how decisions are made in Brussels and how to advance Norwegian interests in an increasingly tough geopolitical reality. The question is whether that’s enough to resolve the major, unresolved issues that have built up at home.
Because it’s not just the carbon levy waiting for him. There’s a whole host of issues from Jens Stoltenberg’s second cabinet that never got fully finished, and are now simmering in the background. I think we’re going to see a quite different Stoltenberg this time around. Less party politician, more statesman. And that might be what we need more than ever.