The War on Iran: From the "Twelve-Day War" to a Collapse Scenario.. What Happened in a Year?

Exactly a year ago, specifically in June 2025, we were following what was then called the "Twelve-Day War" – that direct confrontation that erupted between Iran and Israel after the Israeli operation "Rising Lion" targeted the nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. We thought it would be the peak of the escalation, but what we are experiencing today in March 2026 surpasses all expectations. Now, on the seventh day of the new escalation, we are no longer talking about limited strikes, but an existential war where Israel and America have a stranglehold on Iran's military and economy.

Tehran Under Fire: From Leadership to the Streets

What's happening this time is radically different. At dawn on Friday, residents of Tehran heard the sound of explosions that shook the capital for hours. These weren't distant military suburbs; the raids targeted residential areas and vital centres. Official broadcasts confirm a strike at 5:30 a.m. and another two hours later, but images circulating on platforms from Shiraz and Lorestan province tell a different story: a destroyed school, a burning petrol station, a gymnasium reduced to rubble. Even the Iranian Red Crescent was not spared, with its centres in Mahabad bombed – something observers see as crossing all humanitarian red lines.

Figures are starting to emerge intermittently. Preliminary estimates suggest the civilian death toll has exceeded 1,300 since the war began, but Iranian opposition sources abroad claim the number is much higher, especially after the strikes that hit emergency centres in Mahabad and Shiraz. Meanwhile, Israeli health authorities report over 1,600 people have been admitted to hospitals since the clashes began, but the economic losses are most striking: 9 billion shekels (approximately $2.9 billion) per week, with gas production halted at the "Leviathan" field.

Strike and Response: Iran's Khaibar vs. American Silence

Notably, Iran did not leave the strikes unanswered. This time, it used heavy "Khaibar-Shekan" missiles, weighing 30 tons and carrying a high-explosive warhead. Leaked information suggests these missiles fragmented over Tel Aviv's skies into 80 pieces, complicating interception and igniting fires in at least 3 locations in the Gush Dan area. Witnesses spoke of missile shrapnel falling on streets and severe damage to residential buildings.

Iran went further: The Revolutionary Guards announced they targeted the American aircraft carrier "USS Abraham Lincoln" 340 kilometres off its coast, scoring a direct hit, forcing it to retreat over a thousand kilometres south. If confirmed, this would be the first time Tehran has successfully struck a US naval target of this size in decades.

Why Now? The Backdrop of 2026

Let's be honest: what we're witnessing today isn't just an extension of the war that began in June 2025. The story started long before. The new wave came after months of Iranian protests that erupted in late 2025 due to the rial's collapse and soaring prices. Those were the largest protests since 1979, and their violent crackdown reportedly killed thousands of protesters, with some even talking about 43,000 dead. Then-US (and current) President Donald Trump intervened with a fiery speech, promising Iranians that "help is on the way." Then came the fleet, then the aircraft carrier, then the strikes.

But the new element this time is the assassinations. News reaching us from Tehran speaks of the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself in the initial strikes, along with senior Revolutionary Guards commanders. This might explain the confusion we see in official statements. Who is in charge now? There appear to be emergency meetings of the leadership council and arrangements for selecting a new guide, but the battlefield is burning, cities are being bombed, and civilians are paying the price.

Cities Under Siege: Lessons from the First Gulf War

This scene takes us back a bit, to the 1980s. I was talking to an Iraqi friend last night about images of desert roads and the besieged city of Basra. During the First Gulf War (1980-1988), Iraq lived under a long siege, and the war lasted eight years. Back then, the tables turned after Iran was the attacking party, with Iraq becoming the defender of its land. The difference is that the US today is not neutral as it was back then. At that time, America supported Iraq indirectly: it removed its name from the terrorism list, shared satellite imagery, and encouraged arms dealers to supply it. But it didn't bomb on its own.

Today, American B-2 bombers are participating in destroying nuclear facilities in Fordow and Natanz, and US admirals are planning strikes with the Israelis. The shift is dramatic. America has moved from the shadows to the forefront.

Israeli Losses: The Hidden Side

Of course, Israel isn't announcing everything. There's an almost complete blackout on details of military losses. But leaked figures from hospitals indicate Iranian missiles caused chaos. It's said that 12 people have died so far, including 9 killed by a missile in Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem. Over 2,300 Israelis have been displaced from their homes, half from Greater Tel Aviv. This number is small compared to Iranian displacement, but it puts pressure on the home front there. Informed sources say Hebrew media are banned from publishing images of the damage, but eyewitnesses speak of major fires in various locations.

Iraq and Syria: Shrapnel from the War

This war cannot remain contained between Iran and Israel. From Lebanon, Hezbollah launched rockets towards the Galilee in response to the targeting of the southern suburb. In Syria, at least one civilian was killed in the exchange of raids. Even Qatar and the UAE weren't spared from the shrapnel: injuries there due to missile interceptions or falling debris. The entire region is on a hotplate today, and any miscalculation could turn it into a full-scale regional war.

What's Left of Iran?

The question on my mind now: what's left of Iran's infrastructure? After a year of continuous strikes, after the destruction of major nuclear facilities, and after the killing of leaders, can Tehran resume its nuclear programme? Estimates suggest some nuclear material was moved before the attacks, but factories and facilities have been heavily destroyed. Analysts believe Iran might need years to return to where it was before June 2025.

But the biggest loss isn't in equipment, but in people. It's said 56 Iranian military personnel were killed in the Twelve-Day War alone, and now the numbers are multiplying. The leaders who built the Revolutionary Guards for decades are gone in airstrikes. Even President Pezeshkian seems unable to control the situation, and the leadership council holds its meetings in complete secrecy.

In the end, this war is no longer conventional. It's tearing apart Iran's social fabric, destabilising the Israeli home front, and reshaping regional alliances. The First Gulf War lasted eight years and ended in a stalemate. But this time, everyone feels the end might be different, and it might not take eight years to find out who remains on the map.

• Reported Iranian losses (as of March 6, 2026): More than 1,332 civilians killed, widespread destruction of infrastructure in major cities like Shiraz and Tehran.
• Israeli losses: 12 dead, 2,328 displaced, and 9 billion shekels in weekly economic losses.
• Affected countries: Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE.