The War on Iran: From the 'Twelve-Day War' to the Brink of Collapse – What Changed in a Year?

Exactly one year ago, in June 2025, we were following what was then dubbed the "Twelve-Day War" – the direct confrontation that erupted between Iran and Israel following the Israeli operation "Rising Lion" which targeted nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. We thought that would be the peak of the escalation, but what we are witnessing today in March 2026 surpasses all expectations. Now, on the seventh day of this new escalation, we are no longer talking about limited strikes, but an existential war where Israel and America have a stranglehold on Iran's military and economy.

Tehran Under Fire: From Leadership to the Streets

What's happening this time is radically different. In the early hours of Friday, residents of Tehran heard explosions that rocked the capital for hours. It wasn't remote military suburbs; the raids targeted residential areas and vital centres. Official broadcasts confirm a strike at 5:30 am and another two hours later, but images circulating on social media from Shiraz and Lorestan province tell a different story: a destroyed school, a blazing petrol station, a gymnasium reduced to rubble. Even the Iranian Red Crescent wasn't spared; its centres in Mahabad were bombed, which observers consider a crossing of all humanitarian red lines.

Figures are trickling out intermittently. Initial estimates suggest the civilian death toll has exceeded 1,300 since the war began, but Iranian opposition sources abroad insist the number is much higher, especially after strikes hit ambulance centres in Mahabad and Shiraz. Meanwhile, Israeli health authorities report transporting over 1,600 people to hospitals since the clashes began, but the most striking figure is the economic cost: 9 billion shekels (approximately £2.3 billion) per week, with gas production halted at the Leviathan field.

Strike and Counter-Strike: Iran's Kheibar vs. American Silence

Notably, Iran hasn't let the strikes go unanswered. This time, they used heavy "Kheibar Shekan" missiles, weighing 30 tons and carrying a high-explosive warhead. Leaked information suggests these missiles fragmented over Tel Aviv into 80 separate pieces, complicating interception and igniting fires in at least three locations in the Gush Dan region. Witnesses speak of missile fragments falling in the streets and severe damage to residential buildings.

Iran went further: The Revolutionary Guard announced it targeted the American aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln 340 kilometres off its coast, scoring a direct hit and forcing it to retreat over a thousand kilometres south. If confirmed, this would be the first time Tehran has successfully struck a US naval target of this size in decades.

Why Now? The Background to 2026

Let's be honest: what we're seeing today isn't just an extension of the war that began in June 2025. The story started long before that. This new wave came after months of Iranian protests that erupted in late 2025 due to the collapsing rial and soaring prices. Those protests were the largest since 1979, and their violent suppression reportedly cost thousands of protesters their lives, with some sources mentioning 43,000 dead. Then-US (and now current) President Donald Trump intervened with a fiery speech, promising Iranians that "help is on the way." Then came the fleet, then the aircraft carrier, then the strikes.

But the new element this time is the assassinations. News reaching us from Tehran speaks of the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself in the initial strikes, along with senior Revolutionary Guard commanders. This might explain the confusion visible in official statements. Who is in charge now? It appears emergency meetings of the leadership council are underway, with arrangements for selecting a new leader, but the battlefield is burning, cities are being bombed, and civilians are paying the price.

Cities Under Siege: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War

This scene takes us back, to the 1980s. I was speaking with an Iraqi friend last night about images of desert roads and the besieged city of Basra. In the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Iraq endured a long siege, and the war lasted eight years. Back then, the tables turned after Iran was the aggressor, forcing Iraq to defend its own land. The difference is that the US today isn't neutral as it was back then. At that time, America supported Iraq indirectly: it removed it from the state sponsors of terrorism list, shared satellite imagery, and encouraged arms dealers to supply it. But it didn't bomb itself.

Today, American B-2 bombers are helping destroy nuclear facilities in Fordow and Natanz, and US admirals are planning strikes alongside the Israelis. The shift is dramatic. America has moved from the shadows to the forefront.

Israeli Losses: The Hidden Side

Of course, Israel isn't disclosing everything. There's a near-total blackout on details of military casualties. But leaked figures from hospitals suggest the Iranian missiles caused chaos. It's reported that 12 people have been killed so far, including 9 killed by a missile in Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem. Over 2,300 Israelis have been displaced from their homes, half from the greater Tel Aviv area. This number is small compared to the displacement in Iran, but it puts pressure on the home front there. Informed sources say Hebrew media are banned from publishing images of the damage, but eyewitnesses speak of major fires at various locations.

Iraq and Syria: Shrapnel from the War

This war cannot remain contained between Iran and Israel. From Lebanon, Hezbollah launched rockets towards Galilee in response to strikes on the southern suburb of Beirut. In Syria, at least one civilian was killed in the exchange of fire. Even Qatar and the UAE haven't escaped the shrapnel: injuries there from intercepted missiles or falling debris. The entire region is now on a knife-edge, and any miscalculation could turn it into a full-scale regional war.

What's Left of Iran?

The question on my mind now: what's left of Iran's infrastructure? After a year of continuous strikes, after the destruction of major nuclear facilities, after the killing of its leaders, can Tehran resume its nuclear programme? Estimates suggest some nuclear material was moved before the attacks, but the factories and facilities are heavily destroyed. Analysts believe Iran may need years to return to where it was before June 2025.

But the greatest loss isn't in equipment, it's in people. It's said that 56 Iranian military personnel were killed in the Twelve-Day War alone, and now the numbers are multiplying. The commanders who built the Revolutionary Guard over decades are gone in airstrikes. Even President Pezeshkian seems unable to control the situation, with the leadership council holding meetings in complete secrecy.

In the end, this war is no longer conventional. It is tearing apart Iran's social fabric, destabilising the Israeli home front, and redrawing the region's alliances. The Iran-Iraq War lasted eight years and ended in stalemate. But this time, everyone senses the end could be different, and it might not take eight years to find out who remains on the map.

• Declared Iranian losses (as of 6 March 2026): Over 1,332 civilians killed, widespread destruction of infrastructure in major cities like Shiraz and Tehran.
• Israeli losses: 12 dead, 2,328 displaced, and 9 billion shekels in weekly economic losses.
• Countries affected: Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE.