The War on Iran: From the '12-Day War' to a Collapse Scenario... What’s Changed in a Year?

Exactly a year ago, in June 2025, we were following what was then dubbed the "12-Day War" – that direct confrontation between Iran and Israel following the Israeli "Rising Lion" operation targeting nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. We thought that would be the peak of the escalation. But what we're witnessing now in March 2026 surpasses all expectations. Now, on the seventh day of this new escalation, we're no longer talking about limited strikes, but an existential war where Israel and America have Iran's military and economy by the throat.

Tehran Under Fire: From Leadership to the Streets

What's happening this time is radically different. At dawn on Friday, residents of Tehran heard explosions that rocked the capital for hours. It wasn't remote military suburbs; the raids targeted residential areas and vital centres. What's being broadcast on official channels confirms a strike at 5:30 AM and another two hours later, but images circulating on platforms from Shiraz and Lorestan province tell a different story: a destroyed school, a blazing petrol station, a gymnasium reduced to rubble. Even the Iranian Red Crescent wasn't spared, with its centres in Mahabad bombed – something observers see as crossing every humanitarian red line.

Figures are starting to emerge intermittently. Preliminary estimates suggest the civilian death toll has surpassed 1,300 since the war began, but exiled Iranian opposition sources insist the number is much higher, especially after strikes on emergency centres in Mahabad and Shiraz. Meanwhile, Israeli health authorities report over 1,600 people have been taken to hospitals since the clashes began. But what's most striking is the economic cost: 9 billion shekels (around $2.9 billion) per week, with gas production halted at the Leviathan field.

Strike and Counter-Strike: Iran's Khaibar vs American Silence

Significantly, Iran hasn't let the strikes go unanswered. This time, they've used heavy "Khaibar-Shekan" missiles, weighing 30 tons and carrying high-explosive warheads. Leaked information suggests these missiles fragmented into 80 pieces over Tel Aviv's skies, making interception difficult and sparking fires in at least three locations in the Gush Dan area. Eyewitnesses speak of missile shrapnel falling on streets and severe damage to residential buildings.

Iran has gone even further: The Revolutionary Guards announced they targeted the American aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln 340 kilometres off its coast, scoring a direct hit, forcing it to retreat over a thousand kilometres south. If this information is confirmed, it would be the first time Tehran has successfully struck a US naval target of this size in decades.

Why Now? The Backstory of 2026

Let's be honest: what we're seeing today isn't just an extension of the war that began in June 2025. The story started long before that. This new wave came after months of Iranian protests that erupted in late 2025 over the collapsing rial and soaring prices. Those were the largest protests since 1979, and it's said their violent suppression cost thousands of demonstrators their lives, with some even talking about 43,000 killed. Then-US (and current) President Donald Trump intervened with a fiery speech, promising Iranians that "help is on the way." Then came the fleet, then the aircraft carrier, then the strikes.

But what's new this time are the assassinations. Reports reaching us from Tehran speak of the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself in the initial strikes, along with senior Revolutionary Guards commanders. This might explain the confusion we see in official statements. Who's in charge now? It seems there are emergency meetings of the leadership council and arrangements underway to choose a new leader, but the battlefield is on fire, cities are being bombed, and civilians are paying the price.

Cities Under Siege: Lessons from the First Gulf War

This scene takes us back a bit, to the 1980s. I was talking to an Iraqi friend last night about images of desert roads and besieged Basra. In the First Gulf War (1980-1988), Iraq lived under a long siege, and the war lasted eight years. Back then, the tables turned after Iran was the aggressor, with Iraq becoming the defender of its land. The difference is that the US today isn't neutral like it was back then. In that period, America supported Iraq indirectly: it removed its name from the terrorism list, shared satellite images, and encouraged arms dealers to supply it. But it didn't bomb itself.

Today, American B-2 bombers are participating in destroying nuclear facilities in Fordow and Natanz, and US admirals are planning strikes alongside the Israelis. The shift is dramatic. America has moved from the shadows to the forefront.

Israeli Losses: The Hidden Side

Of course, Israel isn't announcing everything. There's a near-total blackout on details of military casualties. But figures leaked from hospitals suggest Iranian missiles have caused chaos. It's said that 12 people have been killed so far, including 9 by a missile in Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem. Over 2,300 Israelis have been displaced from their homes, half of them from Greater Tel Aviv. This number is small compared to the displacement in Iran, but it puts pressure on the home front there. Informed sources say Hebrew media are banned from publishing images of the damage, but eyewitnesses report major fires in various locations.

Iraq and Syria: Shrapnel from the War

This war can't stay contained between Iran and Israel. From Lebanon, Hezbollah launched rockets towards the Galilee in response to strikes on the southern suburb. And in Syria, at least one civilian was killed in the exchange of raids. Even Qatar and the UAE haven't escaped the shrapnel: injuries there from intercepted missiles or falling debris. The whole region is on a knife's edge today, and any miscalculation could turn it into a full-scale regional war.

What's Left of Iran?

The question on my mind now: what's left of Iran's infrastructure? After a year of continuous strikes, after the destruction of major nuclear facilities, and after the killing of leaders, can Tehran resume its nuclear program? Estimates suggest some nuclear material was moved before the attacks, but the factories and facilities are heavily destroyed. Analysts believe Iran might need years to return to where it was before June 2025.

But the biggest loss isn't in equipment; it's in people. It's said that 56 Iranian military personnel were killed in the 12-Day War alone, and now the numbers are multiplying. The leaders who built the Revolutionary Guards for decades are gone in airstrikes. Even President Pezeshkian seems unable to control the situation, and the leadership council holds its meetings in complete secrecy.

In the end, this war is no longer conventional. It's tearing Iran's social fabric, destabilising the Israeli home front, and reshaping the region's alliances. The First Gulf War lasted eight years and ended in stalemate. But this time, everyone feels the ending could be different, and it might not take eight years to find out who's left standing.

• Announced Iranian Casualties (as of March 6, 2026): More than 1,332 civilians killed, widespread destruction of infrastructure in major cities like Shiraz and Tehran.
• Israeli Casualties: 12 dead, 2,328 displaced, and 9 billion shekels in weekly economic losses.
• Affected Countries: Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE.