War on Iran: From the '12-Day War' to a Collapse Scenario.. What Happened in a Year?

Exactly one year ago, in June 2025, we were following what was then called the "12-Day War," that direct confrontation that erupted between Iran and Israel following the Israeli operation "Rising Lion" which targeted nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. We thought it would be the peak of the escalation, but what we are experiencing today in March 2026 exceeds all expectations. Now, on the seventh day of the new escalation, we are no longer talking about limited strikes, but an existential war where Israel and America have Iran's military and economy by the throat.

Tehran Under Fire: From Leadership to the Streets

What's happening this time is radically different. At dawn on Friday, residents of Tehran heard the sound of explosions that shook the capital for hours. They weren't remote military suburbs; the raids targeted residential areas and vital centres. What is being broadcast on official channels confirms a strike at 5:30 AM, and another two hours later, but the images circulating on platforms from Shiraz and Lorestan province tell a different story: a destroyed school, a blazing petrol pump, a gymnasium reduced to rubble. Even the Iranian Red Crescent was not spared, as its centres in Mahabad were bombed, which observers consider a crossing of all humanitarian red lines.

Figures are starting to emerge sporadically. Initial estimates indicate the civilian death toll has exceeded 1,300 since the beginning of the war, but Iranian opposition sources abroad confirm the number is much higher, especially after the strikes that hit ambulance centres in Mahabad and Shiraz. In contrast, Israeli health authorities report over 1,600 people have been transferred to hospitals since the clashes began, but what's most striking is the economic loss: 9 billion shekels (approximately Rs 80 billion) weekly, with gas production halted at the "Leviathan" field.

Strike and Counter-Strike: Iran's Khaibar vs. American Silence

Notably, Iran did not leave the strikes unanswered. This time, it used heavy "Khaibar-Shekan" missiles, those weighing 30 tons and carrying a high-explosive warhead. Leaked information suggests these missiles fragmented into 80 pieces in the skies over Tel Aviv, making interception difficult and igniting fires in at least 3 locations in the Gush Dan area. Eyewitnesses speak of shrapnel from these missiles falling on streets and severe damage to residential buildings.

Iran went even further: The Revolutionary Guard announced it targeted the US aircraft carrier "USS Abraham Lincoln" 340 kilometres off its coast, scoring a direct hit, forcing it to retreat more than a thousand kilometres south. If this information is confirmed, it would be the first time Tehran has successfully struck a US naval target of this size in decades.

Why Now? The Background of 2026

Let's be honest: what we are witnessing today is not just an extension of that war that began in June 2025. The story started long before that. The new wave came after months of Iranian protests that erupted in late 2025 due to the collapse of the Rial and soaring prices. Those protests were the largest since 1979, and it's said their violent suppression cost thousands of demonstrators their lives, with some even talking about 43,000 dead. Then-US (and current) President Donald Trump intervened with a fiery speech, promising Iranians that "help is on the way." Then came the fleet, then the aircraft carrier, then the strikes.

But the new element this time is the assassinations. News reaching us from Tehran speaks of the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself in the initial strikes, along with senior Revolutionary Guard commanders. This might explain the state of confusion we see in official statements. Who is in charge now? It seems there are emergency meetings of the leadership council, and arrangements are being made to select a new Supreme Leader, but the battlefield is on fire, cities are being bombed, and civilians are paying the price.

Cities Under Siege: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War

This scene takes us back a bit, to the 1980s. I was talking to an Iraqi friend last night about the scenes of desert roads and the besieged city of Basra. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Iraq lived under a long siege, and the war lasted eight years. Back then, the tables turned after Iran was the attacking party, with Iraq becoming the defender of its land. The difference is that the US today is not neutral as it was back then. At that time, America supported Iraq indirectly: it removed its name from the terrorism list, shared satellite imagery, and encouraged arms dealers to supply it. But it did not bomb itself.

Today, American B-2 bombers are participating in destroying nuclear facilities in Fordow and Natanz, and American admirals are planning strikes with the Israelis. The shift is dramatic. America has moved from the shadows to the forefront.

Israeli Losses: The Hidden Side

Of course, Israel doesn't announce everything. There's an almost complete blackout on details of military losses. But figures leaked from hospitals indicate that Iranian missiles caused chaos. It is said that 12 deaths have occurred so far, including 9 killed by a missile in Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem. More than 2,300 Israelis have been displaced from their homes, half of them from Greater Tel Aviv. This number is small compared to the Iranian displacement, but it puts pressure on the home front there. Informed sources say Hebrew media are banned from publishing images of the damage, but eyewitnesses speak of major fires in various locations.

Iraq and Syria: Shrapnel of War

This war cannot remain contained between Iran and Israel. From Lebanon, Hezbollah fired rockets towards the Galilee in response to the targeting of the southern suburb. And in Syria, at least one civilian was killed in the exchange of strikes. Even Qatar and the UAE were not spared from the shrapnel: injuries there due to missile interceptions or falling debris. The entire region is on a hot plate today, and any miscalculation could turn it into a full-scale regional war.

What's Left of Iran?

The question on my mind now: what is left of Iran's infrastructure? After a year of continuous strikes, after the destruction of major nuclear facilities, and after the killing of leaders, can Tehran resume its nuclear programme? Estimates suggest that some nuclear materials were moved before the attacks, but the factories and facilities have been largely destroyed. Analysts believe Iran might need years to return to where it was before June 2025.

But the biggest loss is not in equipment, but in people. It is said that 56 of the Iranian military were killed in the 12-Day War alone, and now the numbers are multiplying. The leaders who built the Revolutionary Guard over decades are gone in airstrikes. Even President Pezeshkian seems unable to control the situation, and the leadership council holds its meetings in complete secrecy.

In the end, this war is no longer conventional. It is tearing apart the Iranian social fabric, destabilising the Israeli home front, and reshaping regional alliances. The Iran-Iraq War lasted eight years and ended in a stalemate. But this time, everyone feels the end might be different, and it may not take eight years to find out who will remain on the map.

• Announced Iranian Casualties (as of March 6, 2026): Over 1,332 civilians killed, widespread destruction of infrastructure in major cities like Shiraz and Tehran.
• Israeli Casualties: 12 dead, 2,328 displaced, and 9 billion shekels in weekly economic losses.
• Affected Countries: Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE.