The War on Iran: From the '12-Day War' to the Collapse Scenario – What Has Changed in a Year?

Exactly a year ago, in June 2025, we were following what was then called the "12-Day War" – that direct confrontation that erupted between Iran and Israel following the Israeli 'Rising Lion' operation targeting nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. We thought it would be the peak of the escalation, but what we're living through now in March 2026 exceeds all expectations. Now, on the seventh day of this new escalation, we're no longer talking about limited strikes, but an existential war where Israel and America have Iran's military and economy by the throat.

Tehran Under Fire: From Leadership to the Streets

What's happening this time is radically different. At dawn on Friday, residents of Tehran heard explosions that rocked the capital for hours. These weren't distant military suburbs; the raids targeted residential areas and vital centres. Official broadcasts confirm a strike at 5:30 am, and another two hours later, but images circulating on social media from Shiraz and Lorestan province tell a different story: a destroyed school, a blazing petrol station, a gymnasium reduced to rubble. Even the Iranian Red Crescent wasn't spared, with its centres in Mahabad bombed – a move observers see as crossing every humanitarian red line.

Figures are trickling out intermittently. Preliminary estimates suggest the civilian death toll has surpassed 1,300 since the war began, but exiled Iranian opposition sources insist the number is much higher, especially after strikes hit ambulance centres in Mahabad and Shiraz. Meanwhile, Israeli health authorities report over 1,600 people have been taken to hospitals since the clashes began, but the most striking figure is the economic cost: 9 billion shekels (around $2.9 billion USD) per week, with gas production halted at the Leviathan field.

Strike and Counterstrike: Iran's Khaibar vs. American Silence

Notably, Iran hasn't let the strikes go unanswered. This time, they've used heavy 'Khaibar-Shekan' missiles – the ones weighing 30 tons and carrying high-explosive warheads. Leaked intel suggests these missiles fragmented into 80 pieces over Tel Aviv's skies, making interception difficult and igniting fires in at least three locations in the Gush Dan region. Eyewitnesses talk of missile fragments falling in the streets and severe damage to residential buildings.

Iran has gone even further: the Revolutionary Guard announced it targeted the American aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln 340 kilometres off its coast, scoring a direct hit, forcing it to retreat over a thousand kilometres south. If confirmed, this would be the first time Tehran has successfully struck a US naval target of this size in decades.

Why Now? The Backstory of 2026

Let's be honest: what we're witnessing today isn't just a continuation of that war that started in June 2025. The story began long before. This new wave came after months of Iranian protests that erupted in late 2025 over the collapsing rial and soaring prices. Those were the largest protests since 1979, and their violent crackdown reportedly cost thousands of demonstrators their lives – some sources even mention 43,000 killed. Then-US President (and current) Donald Trump intervened with a fiery speech, promising Iranians that "help is on the way." Then came the fleet, then the carrier, then the strikes.

But the new element this time is the assassinations. News reaching us from Tehran speaks of the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself in the initial strikes, along with senior Revolutionary Guard commanders. This might explain the confusion in official statements. Who's in charge now? It appears emergency meetings of the leadership council are underway, with arrangements to select a new leader, but the battlefield is burning, cities are being bombed, and civilians are paying the price.

Cities Under Siege: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War

This scene takes us back in time, to the 1980s. I was talking to an Iraqi friend last night about images of desert roads and the besieged city of Basra. In the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Iraq lived under a long siege, and the war lasted eight years. Back then, the tables turned after Iran was the aggressor, with Iraq defending its own land. The difference is that the US today isn't neutral like it was back then. At that time, America supported Iraq indirectly: it removed it from the terror list, shared satellite imagery, and encouraged arms dealers to supply it. But it didn't do the bombing itself.

Today, American B-2 bombers are helping destroy nuclear facilities in Fordow and Natanz, and US admirals are planning strikes alongside the Israelis. The shift is dramatic. America has moved from the shadows to the frontline.

Israeli Losses: The Hidden Side

Of course, Israel isn't declaring everything. There's a near-total blackout on details of military casualties. But leaked figures from hospitals suggest Iranian missiles have caused chaos. It's reported that 12 people have been killed so far, including 9 by a missile in Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem. Over 2,300 Israelis have been displaced from their homes, half of them from the greater Tel Aviv area. That number is small compared to Iranian displacement, but it puts pressure on the home front there. Informed sources say Hebrew media are banned from publishing images of the damage, but eyewitnesses speak of major fires in various locations.

Iraq and Syria: Shrapnel from the War

This war can't stay contained between Iran and Israel. From Lebanon, Hezbollah launched rockets towards the Galilee in retaliation for strikes on the southern suburb of Beirut. In Syria, at least one civilian was killed in the cross-border raids. Even Qatar and the UAE haven't escaped the shrapnel: injuries there from intercepted missiles or falling debris. The entire region is on a knife's edge today, and any miscalculation could turn it into a full-blown regional war.

What's Left of Iran?

The question on my mind now: what's left of Iran's infrastructure? After a year of continuous strikes, after the destruction of major nuclear facilities, after the killing of its leadership, can Tehran resume its nuclear programme? Estimates suggest some nuclear material was moved before the attacks, but the plants and facilities are heavily damaged. Some analysts believe Iran could need years to return to where it was before June 2025.

But the greatest loss isn't in equipment, it's in people. It's said that 56 Iranian military personnel were killed in the 12-Day War alone, and now the numbers are multiplying. The leaders who built the Revolutionary Guard over decades are gone in airstrikes. Even President Pezeshkian seems unable to control the situation, and the leadership council holds its meetings in complete secrecy.

In the end, this war is no longer conventional. It's tearing apart Iran's social fabric, destabilising the Israeli home front, and reshaping the region's alliances. The Iran-Iraq War lasted eight years and ended in stalemate. But this time, everyone feels the end could be different, and it might not take eight years to find out who remains on the map.

• Announced Iranian losses (as of March 6, 2026): More than 1,332 civilians killed, widespread destruction of infrastructure in major cities like Shiraz and Tehran.
• Israeli losses: 12 dead, 2,328 displaced, and 9 billion shekels in weekly economic losses.
• Affected countries: Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE.