The War on Iran: From 'The Twelve-Day War' to the Collapse Scenario.. What Has Happened in a Year?

Exactly one year ago, in June 2025, we were following what was then dubbed the "Twelve-Day War" — that direct confrontation which erupted between Iran and Israel following the Israeli 'Rising Lion' operation targeting the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities. We thought it would be the peak of the escalation, but what we are witnessing today in March 2026 surpasses all expectations. Now, on the seventh day of the new escalation, we are no longer talking about limited strikes, but about an existential war where Israel and America have Iran's military and economy by the throat.

Tehran Under Fire: From Leadership to the Streets

What is happening this time is radically different. At dawn on Friday, residents of Tehran heard the sound of explosions that shook the capital for hours. It wasn't remote military suburbs; the raids targeted residential areas and vital centres. What is being broadcast on official channels confirms a strike at 5:30 a.m., and another two hours later, but the images circulating on platforms from Shiraz and Lorestan province tell a different story: a destroyed school, a blazing fuel station, a gymnasium reduced to rubble. Even the Iranian Red Crescent was not spared, with its centres in Mahabad bombed — a move observers see as crossing every humanitarian red line.

Figures are starting to emerge intermittently. Preliminary estimates indicate the civilian death toll has surpassed 1,300 since the war began, but Iranian opposition sources abroad confirm the number is much higher, especially after the strikes that hit emergency centres in Mahabad and Shiraz. Meanwhile, Israeli health authorities report over 1,600 people have been transferred to hospitals since the clashes began, but the most striking figure is the economic cost: 9 billion shekels (approximately $2.9 billion) per week, with gas production halted at the 'Leviathan' field.

Strike and Counterstrike: Iran's Khaibar vs. American Silence

Notably, Iran did not leave the strikes unanswered. This time, they used heavy "Khaibar Breaker" missiles, weighing 30 tons and carrying a high-explosive warhead. Leaked information suggests these missiles fragmented over Tel Aviv's sky into 80 pieces, making interception difficult and igniting fires in at least 3 locations in the Gush Dan region. Witnesses speak of shrapnel from these missiles falling in the streets and severe damage to residential buildings.

Iran went further: The Revolutionary Guards announced they targeted the American aircraft carrier "USS Abraham Lincoln" 340 kilometres off its coast, scoring a direct hit, forcing it to retreat over a thousand kilometres south. If this information is confirmed, it would mark the first time Tehran has successfully struck a US naval target of this size in decades.

Why Now? The Backdrop of 2026

Let's be honest: what we are witnessing today is not just an extension of the war that began in June 2025. The story started long before. The new wave came after months of Iranian protests that erupted in late 2025 due to the collapsing Rial and soaring prices. Those protests were the largest since 1979, and it's said their violent suppression cost thousands of demonstrators their lives, with some even talking about 43,000 killed. Then-US President (and current) Donald Trump intervened with a fiery speech, promising Iranians that "help is on the way." Then came the fleet, then the aircraft carrier, then the strikes.

But the new element this time is the assassinations. Reports reaching us from Tehran speak of the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself in the initial strikes, along with senior Revolutionary Guards commanders. This might explain the state of confusion seen in official statements. Who is in charge now? It appears there are emergency meetings of the Leadership Council and arrangements underway to choose a new leader, but the battlefield is burning, cities are being bombed, and civilians are paying the price.

Cities Under Siege: Lessons from the First Gulf War

This scene takes us back in time, to the 1980s. I was talking to an Iraqi friend last night about the images of desert roads and the besieged city of Basra. In the First Gulf War (1980-1988), Iraq lived under a long siege, and the war lasted eight years. Back then, the tables turned after Iran had been the attacking party, with Iraq becoming the defender of its land. The difference is that the United States today is not neutral as it was back then. During that period, America supported Iraq indirectly: it removed its name from the terrorism list, shared satellite images, and encouraged arms dealers to supply it. But it didn't do the bombing itself.

Today, American B-2 bombers are participating in destroying the nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz, and American admirals are planning strikes alongside the Israelis. The shift is dramatic. America has moved from the shadows to the forefront.

Israeli Losses: The Hidden Side

Of course, Israel isn't announcing everything. There's an almost complete blackout on the details of military losses. But leaked figures from hospitals indicate the Iranian missiles caused chaos. It's reported that 12 people have been killed so far, including 9 killed by a missile in Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem. Over 2,300 Israelis have been displaced from their homes, half of them from Greater Tel Aviv. This number is small compared to the Iranian displacement, but it puts pressure on the home front there. Informed sources say Hebrew media are banned from publishing images of the damage, but witnesses speak of major fires in various locations.

Iraq and Syria: Shrapnel from the War

This war cannot remain contained between Iran and Israel. From Lebanon, Hezbollah launched rockets towards the Galilee in response to the targeting of the southern suburb. In Syria, at least one civilian was killed in the exchange of strikes. Even Qatar and the UAE were not spared from the shrapnel: injuries there due to intercepted missiles or falling debris. The entire region is now on a knife's edge, and any miscalculation could turn it into a full-scale regional war.

What's Left of Iran?

The question on my mind now: what is left of Iran's infrastructure? After a year of continuous strikes, after the destruction of major nuclear facilities, and after the killing of its leaders, can Tehran resume its nuclear programme? Estimates suggest some nuclear materials were moved before the attacks, but the factories and facilities have been heavily destroyed. Analysts believe Iran might need years to return to where it was before June 2025.

But the biggest loss isn't in equipment, but in people. It's said that 56 Iranian military personnel were killed in the Twelve-Day War alone, and now the numbers are multiplying. The leaders who built the Revolutionary Guards over decades are gone in airstrikes. Even President Pezeshkian seems unable to control the situation, and the Leadership Council holds its meetings in absolute secrecy.

In the end, this war is no longer conventional. It is tearing apart Iran's social fabric, destabilising the Israeli home front, and reshaping the region's alliances. The First Gulf War lasted eight years and ended in stalemate. But this time, everyone feels the ending could be different, and it might not take eight years to find out who remains on the map.

• Announced Iranian Casualties (as of March 6, 2026): Over 1,332 civilians killed, widespread destruction of infrastructure in major cities like Shiraz and Tehran.
• Israeli Casualties: 12 dead, 2,328 displaced, and 9 billion shekels in weekly economic losses.
• Affected Countries: Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE.