The War on Iran: From the "Twelve-Day War" to a Collapse Scenario – What Happened in a Year?

Exactly one year ago, in June 2025, we were following what was then called the "Twelve-Day War"—that direct confrontation that erupted between Iran and Israel following the Israeli "Rising Lion" operation targeting nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. We thought that would be the peak of the escalation, but what we are experiencing today in March 2026 surpasses all expectations. Now, on the seventh day of the new escalation, we are no longer talking about limited strikes, but an existential war where Israel and the U.S. have a stranglehold on Iran's military and economy.

Tehran Under Fire: From Leadership to the Streets

What's happening this time is radically different. Early this Friday morning, Tehran residents heard explosions rocking the capital for hours. These weren't distant military suburbs; the raids targeted residential areas and vital centers. What's being broadcast on official channels confirms a strike at 5:30 a.m., and another two hours later, but images circulating on social media from Shiraz and Lorestan province tell a different story: a destroyed school, a burning gas station, a gymnasium reduced to rubble. Even the Iranian Red Crescent wasn't spared; its centers in Mahabad were bombed, which observers consider a crossing of all humanitarian red lines.

Casualty figures are trickling out intermittently. Initial estimates suggest the civilian death toll has surpassed 1,300 since the war began, but Iranian opposition sources abroad claim the number is much higher, especially after strikes hit ambulance centers in Mahabad and Shiraz. Meanwhile, Israeli health authorities report over 1,600 people have been hospitalized since the clashes began, but the most attention-grabbing figure is the economic cost: 9 billion shekels (approximately $2.9 billion CAD) per week, with gas production halted at the "Leviathan" field.

Strike and Counterstrike: Iran's Kheibar vs. American Silence

Notably, Iran has not let the strikes go unanswered. This time, they used heavy "Kheibar Shekan" missiles, weighing 30 tons and carrying a high-explosive warhead. Leaked information suggests these missiles fragmented into 80 pieces over Tel Aviv's skies, making interception difficult and igniting fires in at least three locations in the Gush Dan area. Witnesses report missile fragments falling in the streets and significant damage to residential buildings.

Iran went even further: The Revolutionary Guard announced it targeted the U.S. aircraft carrier "USS Abraham Lincoln" 340 kilometres off its coast, scoring a direct hit, forcing it to retreat over a thousand kilometres south. If this information is confirmed, it would mark the first time Tehran has successfully struck a U.S. naval target of this size in decades.

Why Now? The Backstory of 2026

Let's be honest: What we're witnessing today isn't just an extension of the war that began in June 2025. The story started long before. The new wave came after months of Iranian protests that erupted in late 2025 due to the collapsing rial and soaring prices. Those protests were the largest since 1979, and it's said their violent crackdown cost thousands of demonstrators their lives, with some sources mentioning 43,000 killed. Then-former (and current) U.S. President Donald Trump intervened with a fiery speech, promising Iranians that "help is on the way." Then came the fleet, then the aircraft carrier, then the strikes.

But the new element this time is the assassinations. Reports reaching us from Tehran speak of the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself in the initial strikes, along with senior Revolutionary Guard commanders. This might explain the state of confusion seen in official statements. Who is in charge now? It appears emergency meetings of the leadership council are underway, with arrangements being made to select a new Supreme Leader, but the battlefield is burning, cities are being bombed, and civilians are paying the price.

Cities Under Siege: Lessons from the First Gulf War

This scene takes us back in time, to the 1980s. I was talking to an Iraqi friend last night about images of desert roads and the besieged city of Basra. In the First Gulf War (1980-1988), Iraq lived under a long siege, and the war lasted eight years. Back then, the tables turned after Iran was the aggressor, transforming Iraq into a defender of its land. The difference is that the U.S. today isn't neutral like it was back then. During that period, America supported Iraq indirectly: it removed its name from the terrorism list, shared satellite imagery, and encouraged arms dealers to supply it. But it didn't do the bombing itself.

Today, American B-2 bombers are participating in destroying nuclear facilities in Fordow and Natanz, and U.S. admirals are planning strikes alongside the Israelis. The shift is dramatic. America has moved from the shadows to the forefront.

Israeli Losses: The Hidden Side

Of course, Israel isn't announcing everything. There's a near-total blackout on details of military casualties. But leaked figures from hospitals indicate that Iranian missiles caused chaos. It's reported that 12 people have been killed so far, including 9 killed by a missile in Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem. Over 2,300 Israelis have been displaced from their homes, half of them from the greater Tel Aviv area. This number is small compared to the Iranian displacement, but it puts pressure on the home front there. Informed sources say Hebrew media are banned from publishing images of the damage, but eyewitnesses speak of major fires in various locations.

Iraq and Syria: Shrapnel from the War

This war cannot remain contained between Iran and Israel. From Lebanon, Hezbollah launched rockets towards the Galilee in response to the targeting of the southern suburb. In Syria, at least one civilian was killed in the exchange of raids. Even Qatar and the UAE weren't spared from the shrapnel: injuries there due to intercepted missiles or falling debris. The entire region is on a razor's edge today, and any miscalculation could turn it into a full-blown regional war.

What's Left of Iran?

The question on my mind now: What's left of Iran's infrastructure? After a year of continuous strikes, after the destruction of major nuclear facilities, and after the killing of its leaders, can Tehran resume its nuclear program? Estimates suggest some nuclear materials were moved before the attacks, but the factories and facilities have been heavily damaged. Some analysts believe Iran could need years to return to where it was before June 2025.

But the biggest loss isn't in equipment, it's in people. It's said that 56 Iranian military personnel were killed in the Twelve-Day War alone, and now the numbers are multiplying. The leaders who built the Revolutionary Guard for decades are gone in airstrikes. Even President Pezeshkian seems unable to control the situation, and the leadership council holds its meetings in complete secrecy.

In the end, this war is no longer conventional. It's tearing apart Iran's social fabric, destabilizing the Israeli home front, and reshaping the region's alliances. The First Gulf War lasted eight years and ended in a stalemate. But this time, everyone feels the ending could be different, and it might not take eight years to find out who will remain on the map.

• Announced Iranian Casualties (as of March 6, 2026): Over 1,332 civilians killed, widespread destruction of infrastructure in major cities like Shiraz and Tehran.
• Israeli Casualties: 12 killed, 2,328 displaced, and 9 billion shekels in weekly economic losses.
• Affected Countries: Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE.