Arancha González Laya: The wounded multilateralism facing Trump's trade threat

In recent days, the name Arancha González Laya has been making waves again in political and economic circles. And for good reason: the former Spanish Foreign Minister has become one of the most lucid voices deciphering the perfect storm brewing in global trade. As Donald Trump threatens a new tariff front that would hit Spain and the rest of Europe hard, Laya's sharp perspective — always with one foot in academia and the other on the front lines of international debate — really makes us sit up and take notice.

The fragility of multilateralism, according to Laya

Just a few weeks ago, at a prestigious international forum, Arancha González Laya was locked in a high-voltage debate with a top-tier political analyst. The title of the discussion said it all: "Saving Multilateralism". Because if there's one thing Laya is clear about, it's that the rules-based international order — the one that took decades to build — is crumbling right under our feet. This isn't a doom-and-gloom view; it's the realisation that with Trump back in the race for the White House, free trade as we knew it has entered its final phase. She puts it in stark terms that really hit home: we're witnessing the funeral of the World Trade Organization if Europeans don't wake up our idea and act as a united bloc.

China's turn and the mistake of deglobalisation

Another key point Laya has stressed in her recent appearances — and one that ties directly to the lengthy title of a much-talked-about conference, "China's Turn in the Trade War" — is that the axis of the conflict is no longer just transatlantic. Beijing is watching with centuries-old patience as the US gets tangled up with its historic partners. For Laya, the real danger isn't the latest tariff, but that we fall into the trap of forced deglobalisation. She prefers to talk about "de-risking", but with nuance: it's not about cutting off ties with China, but doing so without shooting ourselves in the foot. And striking that balance is precisely what European governments, including Spain's, just can't seem to figure out.

Wages, inflation, and the perfect storm

The debate wouldn't be complete without the social angle. In her latest analysis, titled "De-Risking and Wageflation", Arancha González Laya issues a warning that should send a chill down the spines of Economics Ministries: the combination of trade war and energy transition is sparking a bout of wageflation that's tough to manage. But don't get it twisted: Laya isn't against wage increases. What she's pointing out is that if Trump's tariffs make Spanish exports more expensive — think olive oil, wine, pork — companies will have less wiggle room, and jobs will eventually suffer. Back home in Spain, the major unions have already cried foul, calling for a coordinated European response to protect employment — exactly what Laya has been preaching for weeks in international forums.

So, where does Spain stand in all this?

While in Berlin some are pointing fingers at Merz's complicit silence in the face of Trump's bluster, here Laya's voice stands out as a necessary counterpoint. It's not the first time the former minister has reminded us that due to its size and productive fabric, Spain is among the countries that stand to lose the most from a trade war of this magnitude. But unlike many analyses that stop at complaining, she proposes a clear roadmap:

• Strengthen European strategic autonomy without falling into stupid protectionism.
• Diversify trade partners beyond the US and China, looking towards Latin America and Africa.
• Protect the most vulnerable sectors with active industrial policies, not handouts.

In short, when you listen to Arancha González Laya these days, you understand that this isn't just another trade crisis. It's a symptom of a changing era, and she, with that mix of government experience and academic insight, has become the perfect translator of what's heading our way. Take a look at the photo accompanying this article: that slight smile, that look that seems to be calculating three moves ahead. It's the expression of someone who's seen this movie before and is trying to warn us that this time, the ending could be different if we don't hurry up and rewrite the script.