Cem Özdemir and the political aftermath: A Green era ends in Baden-Württemberg

It was an image that sticks in your mind: Cem Özdemir, the man tasked with steering the Greens through the election in Baden-Württemberg, stood on the night of the vote in a Stuttgart hall, trying to process the inevitable. The first projection flickered across the screens – and it showed what many had thought unthinkable until the very end: The era of the Greens as the undisputed party of government in the southwest is over. Friedrich Merz and his CDU had come out ahead, and it wasn't just down to the usual state-level political factors.

A blow for the Greens' national star

Özdemir, the long-time federal politician and former agriculture minister, had thrown himself into a campaign over the previous months with an intensity that was hard to beat. He wanted to prove he could govern in Stuttgart, not just in Berlin. But the spark didn't catch the way he'd hoped. Sure, the Greens remain a force in the southwest, but the momentum is gone. Instead of the boost they were hoping for, there were losses – especially in their urban strongholds, where people had grown used to Green results north of 30 percent. The voters who usually backed him stayed home this time or drifted away. Where to? Some went to the CDU, which scored points with a classic conservative platform; another, smaller segment even shifted to the AfD, which has now firmly established itself in the west as well.

The Merz factor and the bitter end of a tradition

Probably no one had counted on Friedrich Merz personally throwing so much weight around in Baden-Württemberg. The federal CDU leader turned the state election campaign into a kind of vote of confidence for the entire Union party. And he skillfully wove discontent with the federal coalition government's policies in Berlin together with state-level issues. For Özdemir, who was himself part of that federal government, this became a problem. Every debate about heating laws or disagreements on migration policy clung to him – even though he wasn't directly responsible for them in the southwest. It's the classic trap for a high-profile candidate coming from federal politics: People aren't voting for the person; they're voting for the image they have of their party in Berlin.

Why a simple dog toy became a symbol

And then there was that business with the dog toy. Right in the middle of the campaign, at one of those countless stops at a market in Freiburg, an elderly woman pressed a small, squeaky yellow plush toy from the brand Karlie into his hand. "For your dog," she said, and someone snapped a photo. The image went viral on social media, shared, commented on, chuckled over. Suddenly, Cem Özdemir wasn't just the Greens' lead candidate anymore; he was the politician with the dog toy. It was one of those moments that, in their very harmlessness, become almost symbolic: the attempt to be approachable, human, just one of us. Maybe it was even an attempt to shed that aloof politician aura. But in hindsight, it seems like a metaphor for the entire campaign: nice, but not impactful. The "Karlie moment" wasn't enough to mask the deep-seated political disillusionment or the desire for a clear conservative direction.

What's left is a bitter aftertaste. For Özdemir personally, but also for the Green strategy of relying on prominent faces from Berlin. The calculation that a well-known name and federal political experience would automatically translate into votes in the south didn't pay off. On the contrary:

• Loss of core voters: Many urban, liberal Green supporters felt alienated by a campaign heavily focused on security and agriculture.
• The Merz effect: The CDU mobilised its base with a clear stance of opposing Berlin – and Özdemir became a lightning rod for everything going wrong at the federal level.
• The human factor: Try as he might, the spark of genuine enthusiasm that once carried Winfried Kretschmann just wouldn't jump this time. The "dog toy moment" was endearing, but not decisive.

Now, on the morning after the election, the question is: What's next for Cem Özdemir and the politics of the Greens in the southwest? Will he retreat to the federal stage and leave state politics to the new faces? Or will he try to mount a fresh challenge as opposition leader in the state parliament? One thing is certain: The election in Baden-Württemberg was more than just a regional vote. It was a litmus test for the Greens nationwide – and the result, if you're being generous, is a "must try harder." The era of the Greens taking majorities for granted is over, and not even a squeaky yellow Karlie dog toy can paper over that.