Cem Özdemir and the post-election fallout: A Greens era comes to an end in Baden-Württemberg

It was an image that sticks in your mind: Cem Özdemir, the man tasked with steadying the Greens' ship in Baden-Württemberg, stood on election night in a Stuttgart function hall, trying to process the inevitable. The first projection flickered onto the screens – and it showed what many had, until the very end, thought impossible: The era of the Greens as the state's undisputed ruling party is drawing to a close. Friedrich Merz and his CDU had come out on top, and it wasn't just down to the usual state-level political factors.

A tough loss for the Greens' national figurehead

Özdemir, a long-time federal politician and former federal agriculture minister, had thrown himself into a campaign over the past months with an intensity that was hard to beat. He wanted to prove he could govern not just in Berlin, but in Stuttgart too. But the spark just didn't catch the way he'd hoped. Sure, the Greens remain a force in the southwest, but the momentum is gone. Instead of the boost they were hoping for, they suffered losses – particularly in their urban strongholds, where they'd become accustomed to results north of 30 per cent. The people who usually trusted them stayed home this time, or drifted away. Where to? Some went to the CDU, which scored points with a classic conservative platform; another, smaller chunk even went to the AfD, which has now well and truly arrived in the west.

The Merz factor and the bitter end of a tradition

No one really had it on their radar that Friedrich Merz would personally throw so much weight around in Baden-Württemberg. The federal CDU leader turned the state election campaign into a kind of vote of confidence for the entire Union party. And he skillfully wove dissatisfaction with the federal government's policies in Berlin together with state-level issues. For Özdemir, who was himself part of that federal government, this became a problem. Every debate about heating laws or migration policy disagreements stuck to him – even though he wasn't directly responsible for them at the state level. It's the classic trap for a high-profile candidate coming from federal politics: People aren't voting for the person; they're voting for the image they have of their party in Berlin.

How a dog toy ended up becoming a symbol

And then there was that business with the dog toy. Right in the middle of the campaign, at one of those countless stops at a weekly market in Freiburg, an elderly lady pressed a small, bright yellow plush toy from the brand Karlie into his hand. "For your dog," she said, and someone snapped a photo. The image did the rounds on social media, was shared, commented on, chuckled at. Suddenly, Cem Özdemir wasn't just the Greens' lead candidate anymore; he was the politician with the dog toy. It was one of those moments that, in their very harmlessness, become almost symbolic: the attempt to be approachable, human, just one of us. Maybe it was even an attempt to shed that aloof politician aura. But in hindsight, it feels like a metaphor for the whole campaign: nice, but not a game-changer. The "Karlie moment" wasn't enough to cover up the deep-seated disillusionment with politics or the desire for a clear conservative direction.

What's left is a bitter aftertaste. For Özdemir personally, but also for the Greens' strategy of relying on high-profile faces from Berlin. The calculation that a well-known name and federal political experience would automatically translate into votes in the south simply didn't add up. On the contrary:

• Loss of core voters: Many urban, liberal Greens supporters no longer felt represented by a campaign heavily focused on security and agriculture.
• The Merz effect: The CDU mobilised its base with a clear stance of opposition to Berlin – and Özdemir became a lightning rod for everything going wrong at the federal level.
• The personal connection factor: Try as they might, the spark of genuine enthusiasm that once carried Winfried Kretschmann just wouldn't jump this time. The "dog toy moment" was endearing, but not decisive.

Now, on the morning after the election, the question is: What's next for Cem Özdemir and the politics of the Greens in the southwest? Will he retreat to federal politics and leave the state scene to the new faces? Or will he try to mount a fresh challenge as opposition leader in the state parliament? One thing's for sure: The election in Baden-Württemberg was more than just a regional vote. It was a litmus test for the Greens nationwide – and to call the result "satisfactory" would be generous. The era of unquestioned Green majorities is over, and not even that bright yellow Karlie dog toy can paper over that.