Petrol prices in Australia: Fuel costs set to rise amid Iran conflict – here's what the experts say

If you’ve filled up recently, you’ve probably felt the sting at the bowser. Fuel prices across Australia are on the move again, and there’s a pretty serious geopolitical reason behind it. The recent flare-up in the Middle East and the growing threat to the Strait of Hormuz is sending global oil prices through the roof – and Australian motorists are copping the brunt of it.

Why filling up is about to get more expensive

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes, handling about a fifth of all global oil trade. With recent military action and rhetoric out of Tehran spooking the market, supply chains are on edge. The result? The price of crude has skyrocketed in a matter of days. Sure, the fuel you’re putting in your tank today was likely bought and refined weeks ago, but importers eventually pass those higher costs down to us. So before you mutter "rip-off" at the checkout, keep in mind this is largely the ripple effect of international markets. We saw the first wave hit back in late February – and it won’t be the last.

Are we heading towards record highs?

The big question on everyone’s mind: just how high will fuel prices in Australia go? Industry analysts are warning we could see prices push past $2 per litre again soon. Roland Bilang, from the peak body for fuel importers, says we should brace for more hikes in the coming days and weeks. The last time we saw these levels was during the energy crisis following the Ukraine war, when prices briefly shot above $2.20. Back then, just like now, geopolitical turmoil meant oil giants cashed in while motorists paid the price. Even the consumer watchdog is pretty much powerless to stop what some have called "opportunistic" pricing. Nicolas Pages, an independent energy economist, paints a grim picture: "Uncertainty is the biggest driver of prices right now – and the market is reacting like a Frankenstein's monster that no one can control."

How to beat the price hike

But it’s not all doom and gloom. There are ways to fight back. The NRMA and other motoring clubs offer excellent fuel price apps that help you hunt down a bargain. Because here’s the thing: price comparison tools consistently show that fuel prices vary wildly. If you just pull into the first servo you see – especially on a major highway – you’ll pay top dollar. But if you’re willing to shop around, the savings add up. Here are a few tricks to beat the system:

• Avoid motorway services: Petrol stations along major highways and freeways are almost always the most expensive. You’ll often see prices well above $2, while a quick detour to a suburban station can be significantly cheaper.
• Use a fuel app: Whether it’s the NRMA app, Cheap Fuel Prices — Fillzz, or another price tracker, a quick glance at your phone before you drive can save you a bundle. It’s especially handy near state borders or in areas with lots of independent operators.
• Location, location, location: Data shows that prices vary from state to state – and even suburb to suburb. Right now, some regional areas and outer suburbs are consistently cheaper for 91 and 98 RON. Inner-city and tourist-heavy spots? Not so much. And if you’re really keen to save, some cross-border towns offer significantly cheaper fuel due to local taxes – though that’s not always an option for everyone.
• Don’t expect transparency: Fuel pricing can be a murky business. While some chains are upfront about hikes, others play it close to the chest, leaving local franchisees to set their own prices.

What the latest figures look like

To give you some perspective: back in early February, the average price for 91 RON unleaded was around $1.67 nationally. Those days are gone for now. Many service stations, including major players like Coles Express and 7-Eleven, have already pushed prices past $1.75. And it’s not stopping there. I’d wager we’ll see the $2 mark creep back into view across many suburbs within the next fortnight. The situation is fluid, and hopes of a quick resolution to the conflict have faded. Uncertainty remains the biggest fuel of all.

So stay sharp, keep comparing prices – and you might just find a local servo that hasn’t jacked up their rates yet. These days, filling up is a strategic move.