LIVE: Ukraine war – Orban's oil blackmail torpedoes European aid, peace talks at a standstill

We could have done without this psychodrama. While the world's attention is consumed by the Middle East inferno, the Ukrainian front certainly hasn't fired its last shot. Far from it. On this Thursday, 19 March, two major developments remind us that the war on Europe's doorstep is entering a critical phase – a volatile mix of diplomatic fatigue and blatant political blackmail.

Europe held hostage by Viktor Orban: "No oil, no money!"

If you thought European unity on Kiev was a done deal, I'm afraid it's time to think again. This morning in Brussels, the summit of the 27 turned into a full-blown standoff. And as has often been the case in recent years, it's Viktor Orban lighting the fuse. The Hungarian Prime Minister, in the thick of his election campaign for the 12 April parliamentary vote, arrived tight-lipped and with the same old tune: he's flat-out refusing to unlock a European loan of 90 billion euros for Ukraine.

His excuse? A pipeline problem. Budapest is demanding that Ukraine restore the transit of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline, damaged by strikes, before it gives the green light. In other words: "We'll help Ukraine when we get our oil," he said, deadpan, in front of his stunned counterparts. It's a brazen bit of blackmail that even got a rise out of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who reminded everyone that "the principle of loyalty and reliability" should be paramount within the Union.

A high-stakes game of diplomatic poker

What everyone knows is that Hungary is using Kiev as an electoral punching bag. Insulting posters featuring Volodymyr Zelensky are popping up all over the country. But behind the posturing, it's Ukraine's financial survival for 2026 and 2027 that's on the line. Thankfully, European diplomats are quietly suggesting an agreement isn't critical right now: Kiev has enough funds to hold out until May, just after the Hungarian elections. We'll keep our fingers crossed that after his re-election (or not), Orban stashes his veto away. In the meantime, the poker game continues, freezing any major progress.

The great absentee from negotiations: peace becomes a collateral victim of the Iran war

If Orban is blocking financial aid, another factor – this one far more geopolitical – is jamming the diplomatic works. Been following the escalation in Iran? Well, it turns out it's having a direct impact on the conflict we're covering here. The trilateral talks between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine are officially "on pause".

The information, confirmed by the Kremlin and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, is straightforward: Washington's gaze is fixed firmly on Tehran. Teams are still talking daily, we're told, but high-level meetings are constantly being postponed. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, was clear: "The trilateral group is on pause." Meanwhile, on the ground, the guns keep talking. US intelligence services, through the voice of Tulsi Gabbard, are even predicting that Moscow will drag out this war of attrition to exhaust Ukrainian resistance.

To sum up the farcical situation as of 19 March, here's what's blocking progress:

• Financially: Hungary is tying its aid to the resumption of its Russian oil supply, holding Europe hostage.
• Diplomatically: US negotiators are consumed by the Middle East crisis, freezing peace talks.
• Militarily: Both sides are watching each other, but strikes continue, as evidenced by the Ukrainian drone attack on Krasnodar that killed one person.

On the ground, the drone war continues

While the politicians play their high-stakes poker games, the military are getting on with their grim work. The Ukrainians have hit back hard in recent hours, claiming a drone attack targeting Russian installations. According to Russian sources, no fewer than 219 drones were shot down on the outskirts of Moscow – a massive attack that lasted nearly four days. Further south, in the Krasnodar region, a Ukrainian strike unfortunately hit residential buildings, killing a civilian. It's the sad routine of a war that just keeps bogging down.

So, where to from here? For now, the "live" coverage of this war paints a mosaic picture: a disunited Europe facing down Orban's blackmail, major powers distracted by other crises, and a Ukrainian people watching the diplomatic horizon cloud over. The only certainty is that the conflict is entering a new phase of uncertainty. And as I always do, I'll keep bringing it to you unfiltered, as close as possible to the ground and the corridors of power.