Afghanistan: Latest on the conflict, the war, and the national cricket team

Sitting here in Stockholm following the news, I'm struck by just how quickly the situation in Afghanistan can change. Just in the last few days, tensions with neighbouring Pakistan have reached a new level. We heard the explosions in Kabul, and now both sides confirm that Pakistani fighter jets have carried out raids on targets inside Afghan territory. The US has already voiced its support for Pakistan's right to defend itself, which effectively gives them the green light for further operations. This is nothing new in the Afghanistan war, but the current intensity is worrying.

A nation caught between war and sporting dreams

At the same time as the Afghanistan men's national football team struggles to find training opportunities outside of Kabul, the cricket team is living its own life on the international stage. For those of us who have followed the region for decades, it's surreal: while bombs fall in the eastern provinces, you can simultaneously watch Afghanistan's cricketers being celebrated in stadiums in India or Australia. They are two completely different worlds existing in parallel.

The cricket team – a national pride

In just a few years, the Afghanistan national cricket team has gone from being a bunch of enthusiasts to an established team among the world's elite. Rashid Khan and his teammates are now bigger than any pop star in Kabul. But behind the success lies a brutal reality: most players live abroad year-round, because the security situation back home makes a safe everyday life impossible. When I spoke to one of their coaches last year, he said: "We represent a country that can't take care of us – but we do it for the people."

Here we see a paradox that should interest any investor with an eye on emerging markets. Afghanistan is incredibly rich in minerals, rare earth metals, and has the potential to become an energy corridor from Central Asia to South Asia. But all of it requires stability – something currently in short supply. That's why the conflict with Pakistan is so critical. If the countries get stuck in an endless border dispute, no business will thrive.

• The War in Afghanistan has been going on for four decades – an entire generation has never known peace.
• Latest news shows the border areas with Pakistan are once again the hottest spots, with airstrikes and ground battles.
• Meanwhile, the Afghanistan men's national football team is right in the middle of qualifiers for the Asian Cup – an achievement in itself given the circumstances.

What does US support for Pakistan mean?

When Washington openly backs Pakistan's right to strike "terrorist targets" inside Afghanistan, it signals that the Taliban rule in Kabul no longer has any diplomatic protection. It's a dramatic shift since 2021, when the US left Kabul in a panic. Now, in 2026, we're seeing the outlines of a new power balance: Pakistan acts while the West watches. For New Zealand businesses considering a presence in the region, this means the risk premium has just gone up another notch. Those investing in reconstruction need to plan for long time horizons and a constantly present security threat.

Football as a survivor

On paper, the Afghanistan men's national football team is a collection of amateurs, but the players have a fighting spirit like few others. I remember when they played Qatar away last year – despite the loss, they stood their ground for 90 minutes against a team that trains in five-star facilities. It's stories like that which prevent you from dismissing Afghanistan as just war and misery. There's a raw energy here, a will to survive and to be seen on the world map.

For me as an analyst, it's not about being a naive optimist, but about identifying where the real fault lines between disaster and opportunity lie. Take the mining industry: the Chinese have already bought the rights to the world's largest lithium deposit in Ghazni province. They're coolly calculating that the Taliban will eventually have to deliver security, otherwise there will be no revenue. The same logic applies to infrastructure projects – roads, railways, power lines – all of which require cross-border cooperation. Right now, Pakistan and Afghanistan are blocking each other's trade, but pressure from the business community in both countries will grow. Eventually, something has to give.

The War in Afghanistan is far from over, but it isn't static either. The airstrikes of recent days are just the latest reminder of how fragile the region is. At the same time, the people there live their lives – they play cricket, they kick a football, they run small businesses in the shadow of the minarets. For an outside observer, it's easy to just see chaos, but anyone who truly wants to understand Afghanistan must also see the potential. That's precisely where the big opportunity lies, for those with patience and a healthy dose of risk appetite.