LIVE: Ukraine war - Orban holds EU aid hostage over oil, as peace talks hit the rocks
We could really have done without this latest political psychodrama. While the world's attention is fixed on the escalating crisis in the Middle East, the Ukrainian front is far from a done deal. Far from it. This Thursday, 19 March, two major developments remind us that the war on Europe's doorstep is entering a critical phase – an explosive mix of diplomatic fatigue and outright political blackmail.
Europe held hostage by Viktor Orban: "No oil, no money!"
If you thought European unity on Kyiv was a given, I'm afraid it's time to think again. This morning in Brussels, the summit of the 27 turned into a full-blown standoff. And, as has often been the case in recent years, Viktor Orban is the one lighting the fuse. The Hungarian Prime Minister, in the thick of his election campaign for the 12 April parliamentary vote, arrived tight-lipped and with the same old refrain: he is flatly refusing to release a €90 billion European loan for Ukraine.
His excuse? A problem with an oil pipeline. Budapest is demanding that Ukraine restore the transit of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline, damaged in strikes, before it will give the green light. Translation: "We'll help Ukraine when we get our oil," he reportedly said, unflappable, to his stunned counterparts. It's a brazen piece of blackmail that even pushed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to respond, reminding everyone that "the principle of loyalty and reliability" must prevail within the Union.
A high-stakes game of brinkmanship
Everyone knows that Hungary is using Kyiv as an electoral punching bag. Offensive posters depicting Volodymyr Zelensky have popped up across the country. But behind the posturing, it's Ukraine's financial survival for 2026 and 2027 that's at stake. Thankfully, European diplomats are quietly suggesting a deal isn't critical just yet: Kyiv has enough funds to hold out until May, just after the Hungarian elections. Fingers crossed that after he's (re)elected, Orban shelves his veto. In the meantime, the poker game continues, freezing any major progress.
The great absentee from negotiations: Peace becomes a collateral victim of the war in Iran
While Orban blocks financial aid, another factor, far more geopolitical, is jamming the diplomatic machinery. You've been following the escalation in Iran? Well, it has a direct impact on the conflict we're covering here. The trilateral talks between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine are officially "on hold".
The information, confirmed by the Kremlin and the Ukrainian foreign ministry, is straightforward: Washington's gaze is now firmly fixed on Tehran. Teams are still in daily contact, we're told, but high-level meetings are constantly being postponed. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was clear: "The trilateral group is on hold." Meanwhile, on the ground, the weapons continue to do the talking. US intelligence services, via Tulsi Gabbard, are even predicting that Moscow will prolong this war of attrition to exhaust Ukrainian resistance.
To sum up the farcical situation on 19 March, here's what's blocking progress:
- Financially: Hungary is making its aid conditional on the return of its Russian oil, holding Europe hostage.
- Diplomatically: US negotiators are consumed by the Middle East crisis, freezing peace talks.
- Militarily: Both sides are watching each other, but strikes continue, as evidenced by the Ukrainian drone attack on Krasnodar which left one person dead.
On the front line, the drone war rages on
While the politicians play their high-stakes games, the military are getting on with their grim work. The Ukrainians have struck hard in recent hours, claiming a drone attack on Russian installations. According to Russian sources, at least 219 drones were shot down on the outskirts of Moscow in a massive attack that lasted nearly four days. Further south, in the Krasnodar region, a Ukrainian strike tragically hit residential buildings, killing a civilian. It's the grim routine of a war that seems endlessly bogged down.
So, where are we heading? For now, the "live" coverage of this war paints a picture in mosaic: a disunited Europe facing down Orban's blackmail, major powers distracted by other crises, and a Ukrainian people watching the diplomatic horizon darken. The only certainty is that the conflict is entering a new phase of uncertainty. And, as usual, I'll continue to report it to you without filter, as close as possible to the front line and the corridors of power.