Israel escalates against Hezbollah – tens of thousands flee in Lebanon

New phase in the conflict: "Save your lives"

Israel has launched what it calls a new phase in its operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. On Monday, tens of thousands of civilians in southern Beirut and other parts of southern Lebanon were urged to leave their homes immediately. "Save your lives, evacuate now," read the Israeli military's order, as it simultaneously intensified airstrikes on what it describes as Hezbollah's infrastructure. On the escape routes south of Beirut, cars overloaded with people and belongings can be seen in a desperate attempt to get away from the violence. A local aid worker on the ground describes the chaos: "It's complete panic. People don't know where to go, they're just driving."

Background: Explosions and targeted killings

The latest escalation comes after a series of heavy blows against Hezbollah. Just a couple of weeks ago, Lebanon was shaken by a synchronized wave of explosions targeting members of the organisation. The 2024 Lebanon electronic device attacks, as they are already being called, involved thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies detonating in the pockets of Hezbollah supporters – a sophisticated intelligence operation widely attributed to Israeli intelligence. The attacks killed dozens and wounded thousands, crippling large parts of Hezbollah's communication network. A source with insight into the security apparatus confirms the attack was planned long in advance and aimed at creating maximum chaos.

Just days later, it was confirmed that Hezbollah's Secretary-General, the charismatic and long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut. Nasrallah, who led the movement for over three decades, was the mastermind behind Hezbollah's strategic buildup and an icon of resistance against Israel. His death is an extremely heavy blow to the organisation, which is now struggling to maintain its command structure and morale. Within the party, there is talk of a period of darkness, but also of bloody revenge.

"This is normal for us" – life under the bombs

On the ground in southern Lebanon, people describe a daily life marked by constant death and destruction. A man who just fled the border town of Marjayoun says: "We wake up to bombs, fall asleep to the thunder of bombs, and try to survive in between the strikes. This is normal for us now, but it doesn't make it any easier." The Israeli attacks have displaced an estimated half a million people from their homes in just the past week, and many are now sleeping in schools, parks, or open fields in Beirut and other cities. Resources are virtually non-existent, and aid organisations are warning of a humanitarian catastrophe.

Key events in the recent escalation

• Mid-September 2024: Thousands of pagers and communication devices explode in Lebanon and Syria, targeting Hezbollah members. At least 37 dead and over 3,000 injured.
• Late September 2024: A senior Hezbollah commander is killed in an airstrike on Beirut.
• 27 September 2024: Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is killed in a massive Israeli bombing of southern Beirut.
• 30 September 2024: Israel issues evacuation orders for parts of southern Beirut and southern Lebanon, beginning what it describes as a "new phase" – widely interpreted as a precursor to a ground invasion.

What happens now? The risk of a major conflict

With Hezbollah reeling and Israel continuing its military campaign, the question is whether the region is heading towards a full-scale war. Hezbollah has built up a massive rocket arsenal over many years, and the group has already fired hundreds of rockets at northern Israel. Meanwhile, Iran, Hezbollah's main sponsor, has so far refrained from direct intervention. But diplomatic sources in the region suggest that if Israeli troops enter Lebanon on a broad front, it could be the spark that draws more parties into the conflict. For the Lebanese, already suffering from a severe economic crisis, war means another catastrophe. Those fleeing from the south arrive in a Beirut that has itself been bombed and where aid is far from sufficient. "We have nowhere to go," says an elderly woman we meet on the outskirts of the city. "We just want to live in peace, but there is no peace here."