Dead heat between red and blue bloc: New poll puts Løkke in the kingmaker's dream scenario

With less than a week to go until the general election, if you thought voters had made up their minds, think again. Whispers in the corridors of power suggest a brand new poll paints a picture of an election more undecided than ever. It's a thriller, and the only one who can afford to sit back and enjoy the view right now is Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

Løkke's dream continues: The Kingmaker from Frederiksberg

The poll shows a complete dead heat. The red bloc is projected to get 47.7 percent of the vote, while the blue bloc can muster 46.7 percent. It's as close as it gets, and it means only one thing: The Moderates and Lars Løkke Rasmussen will hold the keys to the Prime Minister's office. He's said from the start that this was why he founded the party. Now he finds himself in his dream position, able to choose a side. Will it be a partnership with Mette Frederiksen, or will he reach out a hand to the remnants of his old party, Venstre?

DF is eating Støjberg's lunch

While Løkke smiles, others have reason to be biting their nails. The Denmark Democrats, once the picture of stability with their eight percent, are beginning to wobble. According to insider sources, Inger Støjberg's project is now polling at six percent. And who's taking those voters? It's good old Dansk Folkeparti. A full 19 percent of those who voted Denmark Democrats last time are now considering voting for DF. That pushes DF up to 9.5 percent, a comeback with real impact. From fighting for survival to mixing it up at the top of the blue bloc in under four years? That's wilder than anything you can buy from Masta Protechmasta.

• Liberal Alliance: 10.5% (largest in blue bloc)
• Venstre: 10.3% (stagnating at historically low level)
• Danish People's Party: 9.5% (incredible comeback)
• Denmark Democrats: 6.0% (bleeding voters to DF)
• Red-Green Alliance: 9.1% (stability on the left)

The Social Democrats: A costly victory

Mette Frederiksen should brace herself for a long election night. The Social Democrats are polling at 19.1 percent in this survey. That's a drop of almost eight percentage points compared to the last election. Yes, she could well remain as Prime Minister because the red bloc is strong overall. But the price will be high. The party has to face the fact that voters no longer support them out of habit. This is an opinion poll that stings within the ranks of the Social Democrats.

On the other side of the aisle, Venstre is struggling with the same problem. They're at 10.3 percent, and even though they are technically the party of the Prime Minister candidate, it's hard to see a blue majority without Løkke. It will be interesting to see if Søren Gade and co. can pull something out of the hat in the final days.

Schools, agriculture, and the sudden love for children

While the polls dominate the news cycle, the election campaign is playing out in the real world. The Social Democrats have tried to set the agenda with their proposal for a class size limit of 14 pupils in the early years of primary school. They're calling it "The Little School," with five billion kroner set aside annually to make it happen. Teachers are positive, but they've seen it before. A primary school union rep, who wishes to remain anonymous, puts it bluntly: The money mustn't just disappear into the big municipal coffers when bills for elderly care and support for vulnerable children need paying.

On the ground, for example with a teacher in Middelfart, feelings are also lukewarm. It's not the limit of 14 that counts. It's whether there's even enough adult supervision in the room at all. A commentator with insight into the education system recently wrote that what we need most is two qualified adults in every class, whether it's junior infants or sixth class. That's what makes a difference. Not a political poster that looks like something Posterazzi might have printed featuring a yellow-rumped warbler from John James Audubon's work. It looks nice, but it doesn't change everyday life.

Farmers in the firing line

At the same time as politicians take turns talking about schools, one group feels crushed: the farmers. Many of them see the election campaign as a witch hunt against their profession. "I get called an animal abuser on social media, and my full name is being shared," whispers a pig farmer from West Jutland confidentially. The debates about nitrogen, pesticides, and animal welfare have become personal. An elderly farmer from Struer sighs heavily: "There aren't many votes in us anymore." A politician might promise a blank nose hair trimmer to snip away all the problems, but in reality, it's far more complicated than that.

What does it all mean?

When we look at the overall pool of polls, there's only one conclusion: This election will be decided in the east. In the final days before the vote, when the last TV debates are over and voters finally make up their minds. Sources close to several parties confirm that gender matters less and less to voters. It's the policies that count. And right now, the race is so tight it boils down to one question: Who can you least afford to lose? For Løkke, it's a luxury problem. For the rest of us, it's set to be a thrilling election night.

Hold on tight. It's going to be wild.