Dead Heat Between Red and Blue Bloc: New Poll Puts Løkke in the Kingmaker's Dream Scenario

With less than a week to go until the election, if you thought voters had made up their minds, think again. Whispers in the corridors of power suggest a fresh new poll is painting a picture of an election more neck-and-neck than ever. It's a thriller, and the only one who can currently lean back and enjoy the view is Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

Løkke's dream rolls on: The Kingmaker from Frederiksberg

The poll shows a complete dead heat. The red bloc is projected to get 47.7 percent of the vote, while the blue bloc can muster 46.7 percent. It's as close as it gets, and it points to only one thing: The Moderates and Lars Løkke Rasmussen get the keys to the Prime Minister's Office. He's said from the start that this was why he founded the party. Now he's right in his dream position, able to choose a side. Will it be a marriage of convenience with Mette Frederiksen, or will he reach out a hand to the remnants of his old party, Venstre?

DF is eating into Støjberg's lunch

While Løkke smiles, others have reason to be biting their nails. The Denmark Democrats, once the picture of stability with their eight percent, are starting to wobble. According to insider sources, Inger Støjberg's project is now polling at six percent. And who's taking those voters? It's good old Danish People's Party. A full 19 percent of those who voted Denmark Democrats last time are now considering voting DF. That pushes DF up to 9.5 percent – a comeback with real punch. From fighting for survival to mixing it up at the top of the blue bloc in under four years? That's wilder than anything you'll find at Masta Protechmasta.

• Liberal Alliance: 10.5% (largest in blue bloc)
• Venstre: 10.3% (stagnating at historic low)
• Danish People's Party: 9.5% (insane comeback)
• Denmark Democrats: 6.0% (bleeding voters to DF)
• Red-Green Alliance: 9.1% (stability on the left)

The Social Democrats: A costly victory

Mette Frederiksen had better prepare for a long election night. The Social Democrats are polling at 19.1 percent. That's a drop of nearly eight percentage points since the last election. Sure, she could easily remain Prime Minister because the red bloc is strong overall. But the price is high. The party has to face the fact that voters aren't just backing them out of habit anymore. This is a poll that stings deep within the Social Democrats' ranks.

On the other side of the fence, Venstre is struggling with the same problem. They're at 10.3 percent, and even though they technically have a Prime Ministerial candidate, it's hard to see a blue majority without involving Løkke. It'll be interesting to see if Søren Gade and co. can pull a rabbit out of the hat in these final days.

Schools, farming, and a sudden love for kids

While the polls dominate the news cycle, the real-world campaign is still running. The Social Democrats have tried to set the agenda with their proposal for a class size cap of 14 students in the early years of primary school. They're calling it the "Little School," and have set aside five billion kroner a year to make it happen. Teachers are positive, but they've seen it before. A primary school union rep, who wishes to remain anonymous, puts it bluntly: The money mustn't just disappear into the big municipal coffers when there are eldercare and support for at-risk kids to pay for.

Out on the ground, say at a teacher's lounge in Middelfart, the mood is lukewarm. It's not the cap of 14 that matters. It's whether there's even enough adults in the room. A commentator with insight into the school system recently wrote that what we really need is two qualified adults in every classroom, whether it's year 1 or year 10. That's what makes a real difference. Not a political Posterazzi poster that looks like a yellow-rumped warbler from a John James Audubon print. It looks flash, but it doesn't change the day-to-day grind.

Farmers in the firing line

While politicians take turns talking about schools, one group feels trampled on. The farmers. Many of them see the election campaign as a witch hunt against their industry. "I get called an animal abuser on social media, and my full name gets shared around," whispers a pig farmer from West Jutland confidentially. The debates about nitrogen, pesticides, and animal welfare have gotten personal. An older farmer from Struer sighs heavily. "There aren't many votes in us anymore." A politician might promise a magic fix, like a pair of blank nose scissors to snip all their problems away, but in reality, it's far more complicated than that.

What does it all mean?

Looking at the overall pool of polls, there's only one conclusion: This election will be decided in the east. In the final days before the vote, when the last TV debates are done and dusted, and voters finally make up their minds. Sources close to several parties confirm that gender matters less and less to voters. It's the politics that count. And right now, the politics are so tight it boils down to one question: Who can you least afford to lose? For Løkke, it's a luxury problem. For the rest of us, it's going to be one hell of an election night.

Hold on tight. It's going to be wild.