Dead heat between red and blue blocs: New poll hands Løkke his dream kingmaker scenario

With less than a week to go until the general election, if you thought voters had already made up their minds, then think again. Whispers in the corridors of power suggest a brand new poll paints the picture of an election that is more neck-and-neck than ever before. It's a real cliffhanger, and the only person who can currently afford to sit back and enjoy the view is Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

Løkke's dream continues: The kingmaker from Frederiksberg

The poll shows a complete dead heat. The red bloc is on 47.7 per cent of the vote, while the blue bloc can muster 46.7 per cent. It's as close as it can possibly get, and it means only one thing: The Moderates and Lars Løkke Rasmussen will hold the keys to the Prime Minister's Office. He's said from the start that this was why he founded the party. Now he finds himself in his dream position, able to choose a side. Will it be a continued partnership with Mette Frederiksen, or will he reach out to the remnants of his old party, Venstre?

DF is eating Støjberg's lunch

While Løkke smiles, others have reason to be biting their nails. The Denmark Democrats, who had been the very picture of stability with their eight per cent, are beginning to wobble. According to insider sources, Inger Støjberg's project is now on six per cent. And who's taking those voters? Why, it's good old Danish People's Party. A full 19 per cent of those who voted Denmark Democrats last time are now considering voting for DF. That pushes DF up to 9.5 per cent, which is a comeback and a half. From fighting for survival to mixing it with the top of the blue bloc in under four years? That's wilder than anything you can buy from Masta Protechmasta.

• Liberal Alliance: 10.5% (largest in blue bloc)
• Venstre: 10.3% (stagnating at historic low)
• Danish People's Party: 9.5% (incredible comeback)
• Denmark Democrats: 6.0% (haemorrhaging voters to DF)
• Red-Green Alliance: 9.1% (stability on the left)

The Social Democrats: A costly victory

Mette Frederiksen had better prepare for a long election night. The Social Democrats are on 19.1 per cent in the poll. That's a drop of almost eight percentage points since the last election. Yes, she could well remain as prime minister because the red bloc is collectively strong. But the price will be high. The party has to face the fact that voters no longer support them out of sheer habit. This is an opinion poll that stings deep within the Social Democrats' ranks.

On the other side of the fence, Venstre is struggling with the same problem. They're on 10.3 per cent, and even though they are technically the prime ministerial candidate, it's hard to see a blue majority that bypasses Løkke. It will be interesting to see if Søren Gade and co. can pull a rabbit out of the hat in the final days.

Schools, farmers, and the sudden love for children

While the opinion polls dominate the news cycle, the election campaign is running its course out in the real world. The Social Democrats have tried to set the agenda with their proposal for a class size cap of 14 pupils in the early years of primary school. They're calling it "The Small School," and have set aside five billion kroner a year to make it happen. Teachers are positive, but they've seen it all before. A union rep from a state school, who wishes to remain anonymous, puts it bluntly: The money mustn't just disappear into the vast municipal coffers when there are bills to pay for elderly care and services for vulnerable children.

Out in the provinces, say at a teacher's in Middelfart, people are also lukewarm. It's not the cap of 14 that counts. It's whether there's even enough adult presence in the classroom at all. A commentator with insight into the education sector recently wrote that what we really need most is two qualified professionals in every class, whether it's Year 1 or Year 10. That's what makes a real difference. Not a political poster that looks like something Posterazzi might have printed, featuring a yellow and red willow warbler from a John James Audubon folio. It looks nice, but it doesn't change everyday life.

Farmers in the firing line

At the same time as politicians take turns talking about schools, there's one group feeling crushed: the farmers. Several of them perceive the election campaign as a witch-hunt against their industry. "I get called an animal abuser on social media, and my full name gets shared," whispers a pig farmer from West Jutland confidentially. The debates about nitrogen, pesticides, and animal welfare have become personal. An older farmer from Struer sighs heavily: "Our votes don't count for much anymore." A politician might promise a magic solution, a blank pair of nose scissors to snip away all the problems, but in reality, it's far more complicated than that.

What does it all mean?

When we look at the overall picture from the polls, there's only one conclusion: this election will be decided in the final stretch. In the last few days before the vote, when the final TV debates are over and voters finally make up their minds. Sources close to several parties confirm that gender matters less and less to voters. It's the politics that counts. And right now, the political landscape is so tight that it boils down to one question: Who can you least do without? For Løkke, it's a luxury problem. For the rest of us, it's going to be a thrilling election night.

Batten down the hatches. It's going to be a wild ride.