Dead Heat Between Red and Blue Bloc: New Poll Places Løkke in Kingmaker's Dream Scenario

With less than a week to go until the general election, if you thought voters had already made up their minds, think again. Whispers in the corridors of power suggest a brand new poll is painting a picture of an election more tightly contested than ever. It's a thriller, and the only one who can afford to sit back and enjoy the view right now is Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

Løkke's dream lives on: The Kingmaker from Frederiksberg

The poll shows a complete dead heat. The red bloc is projected to get 47.7 percent of the vote, while the blue bloc can muster 46.7 percent. It's as close as it can possibly get, and it means only one thing: The Moderates and Lars Løkke Rasmussen will hold the keys to the Prime Minister's Office. He's said from the start that this was why he founded the party. Now he finds himself in his dream position, able to choose a side. Will it be a partnership with Mette Frederiksen, or will he extend a hand to the remnants of his old party, Venstre?

DF is eating Støjberg's lunch

While Løkke smiles, others have reason to be biting their nails. The Denmark Democrats, once the picture of stability with their eight percent, are starting to wobble. According to insider sources, Inger Støjberg's project is now polling at six percent. And who's taking those voters? It's good old Danish People's Party. A full 19 percent of those who voted Denmark Democrats last time are now considering voting for DF. That pushes DF up to 9.5 percent, marking quite a comeback. From fighting for survival to mixing it up at the top of the blue bloc in under four years? That's wilder than anything you can get from Masta Protechmasta.

• Liberal Alliance: 10.5% (largest in blue bloc)
• Venstre: 10.3% (stagnating at historic low)
• Danish People's Party: 9.5% (insane comeback)
• Denmark Democrats: 6.0% (bleeding voters to DF)
• Red-Green Alliance: 9.1% (stability on the left)

Social Democrats: A costly victory

Mette Frederiksen should prepare for a long election night. The Social Democrats are polling at 19.1 percent in this survey. That's a drop of almost eight percentage points compared to the last election. Sure, she could very well remain as Prime Minister because the red bloc is strong collectively. But the price will be high. The party has to face the fact that voters aren't just voting for them out of habit anymore. This is an opinion poll that stings deep within the Social Democrats' ranks.

Across the aisle, Venstre is grappling with the same issue. They're at 10.3 percent, and even though they technically have a Prime Ministerial candidate, it's hard to see a blue majority without Løkke. It'll be interesting to see if Søren Gade and co. can pull something out of the hat in these final days.

Schools, agriculture, and the sudden love for children

While the polls dominate the news cycle, the real election campaign is happening on the ground. The Social Democrats have tried to set the agenda with their proposal for a class size limit of 14 students in the early years. They're calling it "The Small School," setting aside five billion kroner annually to make it happen. Teachers are positive, but they've seen this before. A primary school union rep, who wishes to remain anonymous, puts it bluntly: The money mustn't just disappear into the municipalities' general funds when they need to pay for elder care and services for vulnerable children.

Out on the ground, for instance with a teacher in Middelfart, there's also lukewarm reception. It's not the limit of 14 that matters. It's whether there's even enough adult presence in the room. A commentator with insight into the school system recently wrote that what we need most is two professionals in every class, regardless of whether it's kindergarten or secondary school. That's what makes a difference. Not a political poster that looks like something Posterazzi might have printed featuring a yellow-rumped warbler from John James Audubon's work. It looks nice, but it doesn't change daily life.

Farmers in the crosshairs

At the same time politicians take turns talking about schools, one group feels squeezed: the farmers. Many of them experience the election campaign as a witch hunt against their industry. "I get called an animal abuser on social media, and my full name is being shared," whispers a pig farmer from West Jutland confidentially. The debates about nitrogen, pesticides, and animal welfare have become personal. An elderly farmer from Struer sighs heavily: "There aren't many votes in us anymore." A politician might promise a blank pair of nail scissors to snip all problems away, but in reality, it's far more complicated than that.

What does it all mean?

Looking at the overall pool of polls, only one conclusion can be drawn: This election will be decided in the east. In the final days before the election, when the last TV debates are over, and voters finally make up their minds. Sources close to several parties confirm that gender means less and less to voters. It's the politics that counts. And right now, the politics are so tight it boils down to one question: Who can you least do without? For Løkke, it's a luxury problem. For the rest of us, it's going to be an exciting election night.

Hold on tight. It's going to be wild.