Photo finish between Left and Right Alliance: New poll puts Løkke in the kingmaker's dream scenario

With less than a week to go until the election, if you thought voters had made up their minds, think again. Whispers in the corridors of power suggest a brand new poll paints a picture of an election more undecided than ever. It's a barn burner of an election, and the only one who can afford to sit back and enjoy the show right now is Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

Løkke's dream continues: The kingmaker from Frederiksberg

The poll shows a completely tied race. The left bloc is projected to get 47.7 per cent of the vote, while the right bloc can muster 46.7 per cent. It's as close as it gets, and it means only one thing: The Moderates and Lars Løkke Rasmussen will hold the keys to the Prime Minister's office. He's said from the start that this was why he founded the party. Now he's right in the middle of his dream scenario, where he can choose a side. Will he go all the way with Mette Frederiksen, or will he reach out to the remnants of his old Liberal Party?

DF is eating Støjberg's lunch

While Løkke smiles, others have reason to be biting their nails. The Denmark Democrats, who have been the picture of stability with their eight per cent, are starting to wobble. According to insider sources, Inger Støjberg's project is now sitting at six per cent. And who's taking those voters? It's good old Dansk Folkeparti (DF). A full 19 per cent of those who voted Denmark Democrats last time are now considering voting DF. That pushes DF up to 9.5 per cent, which is a serious comeback. From fighting for survival to mixing it up at the top of the right bloc in under four years? That's wilder than anything you can buy from Masta Protechmasta.

• Liberal Alliance: 10.5% (biggest in the right bloc)
• Liberal Party (Venstre): 10.3% (stagnating at historic low)
• Danish People's Party (DF): 9.5% (insane comeback)
• Denmark Democrats: 6.0% (bleeding voters to DF)
• Red-Green Alliance (Enhedslisten): 9.1% (stability on the left)

The Social Democrats: A costly victory

Mette Frederiksen should brace herself for a long election night. The Social Democrats are polling at 19.1 per cent. That's a drop of nearly eight percentage points compared to the last election. Sure, she could easily stay on as Prime Minister because the left bloc is strong collectively. But the price will be high. The party is learning that voters aren't just ticking their name out of habit anymore. It's an opinion poll that stings right to the core of the Social Democrats.

On the other side of the fence, the Liberal Party is grappling with the same problem. They're at 10.3 per cent, and even though they technically have a Prime Ministerial candidate, it's hard to see a blue majority without Løkke. It'll be interesting to see if Søren Gade and co. can pull a rabbit out of the hat in the final days.

Schools, farming, and that sudden love for kids

While the polls dominate the news cycle, the real election campaign is happening out there. The Social Democrats have tried to set the agenda with their proposal for a class size cap of 14 students in the early years of primary school. They're calling it the "mini-school" and have set aside five billion kroner a year to make it happen. Teachers are positive, but they've seen this before. A primary school union rep, who wishes to remain anonymous, puts it bluntly: The money can't just disappear into the big council coffers when it's time to pay for aged care and support for at-risk kids.

Out in the trenches, like at a school in Middelfart, the mood is lukewarm. It's not the cap of 14 that matters. It's whether there's even enough adults in the room. A commentator with insight into the school system recently wrote that what we really need is two qualified staff in every classroom, whether it's kindergarten or Year 9. That's what makes a difference. Not a political Posterazzi poster that looks like it could have been printed with a yellow-rumped warbler from John James Audubon's collection. It looks flash, but it doesn't change day-to-day reality.

Farmers in the firing line

At the same time as politicians take turns talking about schools, there's one group feeling the squeeze. The farmers. Many of them feel the election campaign has turned into a witch hunt against their industry. "I get called an animal abuser on social media, and my full name gets shared," whispers a pig farmer from West Jutland confidentially. The debates about nitrogen, pesticides, and animal welfare have gotten personal. An older farmer from Struer sighs heavily: "There aren't many votes in us anymore." A politician might promise a magic blank nose scissors to cut through all the red tape, but in reality, it's far more complicated than that.

What does it all mean?

When you look at the full suite of polls, there's only one conclusion: this election will be decided in the east. In the final days before the vote, after the last TV debates are over, and voters finally make up their minds. Sources close to several parties confirm that gender matters less and less to voters. It's the policies that count. And right now, the policy stakes are so tight it boils down to one question: Who can you least afford to lose? For Løkke, it's a champagne problem. For the rest of us, it's shaping up to be a thrilling election night.

Batten down the hatches. It's going to be a wild ride.