Palantir stock on a tear: Why Kiwi investors are now eyeing the AI powerhouse

You don't have to be a devoted follower of CEO Alex Karp to understand the fascination surrounding Palantir Technologies right now. While other tech firms are still philosophising about whether artificial intelligence actually makes money, the Denver-based data analyst is simply delivering the goods. And it seems this message has now reached institutional investors here in New Zealand.

Switzerland makes its move: Swiss Life gets on board

While the Palantir share price has seen plenty of volatility in recent weeks – hardly a shock given its P/E ratio is in the triple digits – there's a clear signal coming from the insurance sector. Swiss Life Asset Management Ltd upped its stake in Palantir Technologies by a hefty 5.6 per cent in the third quarter. That's put roughly 858,000 shares, worth around US$156 million, into the Zurich-based firm's portfolio. This isn't pocket change; it's a vote of confidence. They want a piece of the action as the US government and its allies increasingly base their defence and intelligence infrastructure on Palantir's software.

The numbers speak for themselves: 70 per cent revenue jump

Let's look at the concrete facts. The fourth-quarter 2025 figures were nothing short of stellar. Revenue shot up 70 per cent to US$1.41 billion, while earnings per share easily beat expectations at US$0.25. If you're thinking that's just down to an easy comparison with the previous year, take a look at their core US business: commercial revenue there grew by a massive 137 per cent. So, the company has finally managed to translate the stock market's AI hype into real-world commercial contracts. And what does that mean for the full year? Management is forecasting US$7.19 billion in revenue for 2026 – growth of over 60 per cent.

Analysts follow suit: Big finance names get on the front foot

Naturally, numbers like that don't go unnoticed by analysts. What's particularly interesting is that several of the most respected analyst firms have recently upgraded Palantir – and that's even after the stock had taken a decent hit. One analyst closely followed in Zurich's financial circles who has tracked the company for years lifted their price target to US$200 and remains firmly on Buy. Their reasoning? Demand for AI and data infrastructure is exploding, and Palantir Technologies, with its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), sits right at the sweet spot where the money's flowing. Another major investment bank even sees an "80 per cent sales upside" scenario by year's end. So, it's no wonder that despite all the volatility, the analyst consensus sits at "Moderate Buy" with an average price target of just under US$200.

The philosophy behind it all: Why Karp takes aim at pizza apps

Things get even more interesting than the raw numbers when you understand why the business is performing so well. Alex Karp, the tracksuit-wearing CEO with a PhD in philosophy, has co-authored a book with Nicholas Zamiska: "The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West". It might sound like a heavy read, but it's effectively the blueprint for the company's strategy. In it, Karp delivers a scathing critique of Silicon Valley, arguing it's lost its way with social networks and pizza delivery apps. His core argument? The tech industry's true calling is defending the West.

Instead of copying Meta and Google, Palantir has always focused on the real deal: contracts with the Pentagon, intelligence agencies, and now the US Army. As the world becomes more uncertain, Palantir becomes systemically important. The recent contracts, like the billion-dollar deal with the US Army or its integration into the Marines' shipbuilding initiative "ShipOS", are living proof of that. Karp sees data not as a plaything for advertisers, but as a patriotic asset.

The success dilemma: Between hype and hard reality

Of course, it would be misleading to suggest this is all plain sailing. The Palantir share price remains one heck of a bumpy ride. That P/E ratio north of 200 is staggering and a clear note of caution. Insider selling – notably by Karp himself – isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for shareholders. And looking at the geopolitical landscape: it's far from peaceful. Observers from the US tech sector recently lifted their price target to US$200, explicitly citing increasing "war demand". It's a grim backdrop for a booming business.

Nevertheless, for investors who value a company's character as much as its balance sheet, Palantir represents a unique phenomenon. It's the perfect embodiment of the new tech patriotism. Swiss Life has clearly recognised that. Now it remains to be seen if the gamble pays off. All signs, however, are pointing to growth.

• Q4 2025 Revenue: US$1.41 billion (+70% year-on-year)
• FY 2026 Guidance: US$7.19 billion revenue
• Analyst Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Price Target (recent analyst estimates): US$200
• Most striking detail: US commercial business grew 137%