Is the Italian Base in Erbil in Iran's Crosshairs? The New Crisis in Iraq

Tehran's words echo like thunder across the Iraqi desert. Following the latest warning about $200-a-barrel oil and threats to strike American banks and hi-tech giants in the Middle East, a pressing question is being asked quietly in the corridors of Rome's foreign and interior ministries: is our base in Erbil, Iraq, safe?

This isn't alarmism; it's realism. The Italian base in the heart of Iraqi Kurdistan isn't just a logistical outpost: it's the headquarters for Operation Prima Parthica, the nerve centre for training Kurdish and Iraqi forces against what remains of the Caliphate. It's a symbol of our military presence in a region that, over the last 48 hours, has once again become the world's powder keg.

The climate of war and the real threats

Iran isn't messing around. Unmistakable messages are filtering through from their official media: "Get ready for $200 oil." A declaration of economic war that goes hand-in-hand with the military threat to target US interests in the area. And while the stated targets are American banks and tech giants, it's also true that a volley of missiles or drones wouldn't distinguish between flags when it comes to Western bases in Iraq. Erbil, where Americans, Italians, and other coalition forces are based together, is a concentration of potential targets.

Why the Italian base is so important (and vulnerable)

Those on the ground know it well. Our base isn't an impregnable fortress, but a vital hub for the stability of the entire region. Here’s what's at stake and why the risk is so high:

• Proximity to allies: We're literally a stone's throw from US command centres. Any large-scale attack on them would overwhelm us too.
• Strategic role: This is where intelligence missions and the training of local forces are coordinated. Losing the base would mean ceding ground to ISIS and pro-Iranian militias.
• Political exposure: Does Iran consider Italy a friendly nation? Perhaps. But in a shadow war, reason often gives way to blind retaliation. And our presence in Iraq automatically makes us part of the Western front.

Tehran's wrath and the spectre of $200 oil

Tensions are skyrocketing also because, as the regime itself has stated, the United States has apparently abandoned all diplomatic efforts in favour of "organised bullying". Strong words that, translated into action, mean just one thing: we are on the brink of open conflict. For Italy, which imports almost all of its energy needs, the prospect of $200-a-barrel oil isn't just a war bulletin; it's the perfect storm for our businesses and households.

As diplomats scramble for solutions and our intelligence services monitor every move, tension at the Erbil base is palpable. Italian soldiers know that Tehran's patience is wearing thin. And that the next attack, if it comes, might not spare anyone, not even those wearing the Italian flag.

Stay or go? For now, the order is to stay and keep their eyes wide open. But with the Middle East on fire and the threats becoming more explicit by the day, the fate of our base hangs by a very slender thread. The thread of international diplomacy.