Asia, Astronomy, and the Crash: Your Portfolio in the Face of Asian Chaos

My dear readers,

Yesterday, watching the numbers flash up on my screen, I felt like I was no longer in finance, but in astronomy. We were helplessly observing the implosion of a system. The CAC40 plunging 2.17% to close at 8394 points, the German DAX tumbling 2.7%... This isn't physics; this is war branding itself onto our economies. The topic of the day, the shadow cast over all our decisions, is this "Asia" that is no longer just a geographical term. It has become the symbol of a continent on fire, holding its breath as strikes intensify between Iran and a coalition led by the United States and Israel.

Central Asia, a vacuum cleaner for capital

We were calmly discussing our portfolios, how best to hoover up returns, a bit like choosing a state-of-the-art vacuum cleaner to clear out the dust. But now, the opposite is happening. The region has become a gigantic vacuum cleaner for liquidity, but in the wrong sense. Capital is fleeing. And can you blame it? Look at the facts: the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in Saturday's strikes, has created a staggering void. Since then, it's been an uncontrolled escalation. Tehran warns its offensives will intensify, promising that the alarm sirens in Israel will never stop. Meanwhile, the Iranian Red Crescent already reports at least 555 deaths on the Iranian side.

On the ground, it's a macabre chess game unfolding before our eyes. Israeli strikes are no longer limited to Gaza; they target Hezbollah in the heart of Beirut, forcing the Lebanese government into an unprecedented reaction: ordering Hezbollah to lay down its arms. It's a world turned upside down. Meanwhile, the US confirms the loss of six of its soldiers and, in an incident as tragic as it is revealing of the surrounding chaos, three of its F-15 fighter jets crashed in Kuwait, victims of "friendly" fire.

Stock market astrology failing

So, what to do when the models of financial astrology no longer work? When the star charts we had patiently drawn up for 2026 are torn to pieces by raw geopolitics? Some of you, loyal readers, ask me: "Should we sell everything?" The answer is no. You need to reallocate. Yesterday, gold rose 1.68%, flirting with $5335 an ounce. Oil, meanwhile, jumped nearly 7%. It's the market's Pavlovian reflex in times of war, and it's not wrong.

But let me tell you what really worries me beyond the raw numbers.

Here are the three warning signals I'm watching this week:

• The paralysis of the Gulf: Qatar has had to suspend its LNG production. When the world's energy tap is turned off, the entire European value chain shivers and all our industries suffer.
• The expansion of the conflict zone: Strikes have been reported in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, explosions in Bahrain. The "safe haven" financial centres of the Gulf are no longer safe. Money is now seeking more distant and less liquid shores.
• The European diplomatic front: France, Germany, and Britain say they are ready to "work with the United States" to counter Iran. Translation: our already strained budgets will have to find money for defence – money that won't be invested in our businesses, innovation, or growth.

Asia, this new unstable centre of the world

Let's return to our magical "Asia". In astronomy, we observe black holes by the way they bend light. In economics, we observe black holes by the way they divert capital. Currently, anything that even remotely resembles Asia Minor, the Middle East, is a black hole. Money gets sucked in and doesn't come back, or it re-emerges transformed into a frantic flight to safe-haven assets.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not predicting the apocalypse. I'm telling you that the era of carefree, moderate growth is over. We are entering an era where geopolitical risk analysis trumps balance sheet analysis. The bear market we're seeing isn't a technical correction; it's a repricing of the global risk premium. And that premium, my friends, is exploding.

So, concretely, what does this mean for your portfolio? It means you need to stop looking at the stars (astrology) and tune into the shortwaves of geopolitics. It means considering hedges we weren't used to thinking about. Commodities, gold, certain currencies... But also, and this is my point, you now need to think in terms of scenarios.

Whether you're an institutional investor, a family office, or simply an individual with substantial assets, you can no longer afford to ignore the weak signals. The death of a Supreme Leader, a plane shot down by "friendly" fire, a Saudi refinery catching fire... All of this has a direct impact on your liquidity.

The market is currently a vacuum cleaner for certainties. It sucks in our models and spits back a brutal reality. The reality of a war that is no longer a distant hypothesis, but the daily backdrop on our trading screens. Stay vigilant. And above all, stay liquid. Because in this chaos, whoever has ammunition when the dust settles will be able to buy assets at bargain prices. Until then, hold on tight. The journey is just beginning.