War, Astronomy and Crash: Your Portfolio Faces Asian Chaos

My dear readers,

Yesterday, watching the numbers flash on my screen, I felt like I was no longer dealing with finance, but with astronomy. We were helplessly observing the implosion of a system. The CAC40 plunging 2.17% to close at 8394 points, the German DAX tumbling 2.7%... This isn't physics; this is war branding itself onto our economies. The topic of the day, the shadow looming over all our decisions, is this "War" that is no longer a distant threat. It has become the symbol of a Asia on fire, a continent holding its breath as strikes intensify between Iran and a coalition led by the United States and Israel.

Central Asia, a capital vacuum cleaner

We were calmly discussing our portfolios, the best ways to manage them, a bit like choosing a state-of-the-art vacuum cleaner to tidy up dust. But now, the opposite is happening. The region has become a gigantic vacuum cleaner for liquidity, but in the wrong sense of the term. Capital is fleeing. And can you blame it? Look at the facts: the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in Saturday's strikes has created a staggering void. Since then, it's been an uncontrolled escalation. Tehran warns its offensives will intensify, promising that the alarm sirens in Israel will never stop. Meanwhile, the Iranian Red Crescent already reports at least 555 dead on the Iranian side.

On the ground, a macabre chess game is playing out before our eyes. Israeli strikes are no longer limited to Gaza; they target Hezbollah in the heart of Beirut, forcing the Lebanese government into an unprecedented reaction: ordering Hezbollah to lay down its arms. Things have turned upside down. Meanwhile, the US confirms the loss of six of its soldiers and, in an incident as tragic as it is revealing of the surrounding chaos, three of its F-15 fighter jets crashed in Kuwait, victims of "friendly" fire.

Stock market astrology failing

So, what to do when the models of financial astrology no longer work? When the sky charts we had patiently drawn for 2026 are torn apart by raw geopolitics? Some of you, loyal readers, ask me: "Should we sell everything?" The answer is no. We need to reallocate. Yesterday, gold climbed 1.68% to flirt with $5335 an ounce. Oil, meanwhile, jumped nearly 7%. It's the market's Pavlovian reflex in times of war, and it's not wrong.

But let me tell you what really worries me beyond the raw numbers.

Here are the three warning signals I'm watching this week:

• The Paralysis of the Gulf: Qatar had to suspend its LNG production. When the world's energy tap shuts off, the entire European value chain shivers and our industries suffer.
• The Expansion of the Conflict Zone: Strikes have been reported in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, explosions in Bahrain. The Gulf's "safe haven" financial centres are no longer safe. Money is now seeking more distant and less liquid territories.
• The European Diplomatic Front: France, Germany, and Britain say they are ready to "work with the United States" to counter Iran. Translation: our budgets, already drained, will have to find money for defence—money that won't be invested in our companies, innovation, or growth.

Asia, this new unstable center of the world

Let's come back to our magic word, "War". In astronomy, we observe black holes by the deflection of light. In economics, we observe black holes by the deflection of capital. Currently, anything even remotely resembling Asia Minor, the Middle East, is a black hole. Money gets sucked in and doesn't come back, or it comes back transformed into a desperate flight to safe havens.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not predicting the apocalypse. I'm telling you that the era of carefree, mild growth is over. We are entering an era where geopolitical risk analysis trumps balance sheet analysis. The bear market we're seeing isn't a technical correction; it's a repricing of the global risk premium. And that premium, my friends, is exploding.

So, concretely, for your portfolio, what does this mean? It means we need to stop stargazing (astrology) and tune into the shortwave frequencies of geopolitics. It means we need to consider hedges we weren't used to considering. Commodities, gold, certain currencies... But also, and this is my point, we now need to think in terms of scenarios.

If you are an institutional investor, a family office, or simply an individual with substantial wealth, you can no longer afford to ignore the weak signals. The death of a Supreme Leader, a plane shot down by "friendly" fire, a Saudi refinery catching fire... All of this has a direct impact on your liquidity.

The market is currently a vacuum cleaner for certainties. It swallows our models and spits back a brutal reality. The reality of a war that is no longer a distant hypothesis, but the daily backdrop on our trading screens. Stay vigilant. And above all, stay liquid. Because in this chaos, the one who has ammunition when the dust settles will be able to buy assets at bargain prices. Until then, hold on tight. The journey has only just begun.