Flávio Bolsonaro in Statistical Tie with Lula in Second Round Runoff, Poll Shows; Scenarios Explained
A new survey has just leaked from the political backrooms, and it's already shaking up the mood for 2026. For the first time, the name of Flávio Bolsonaro has been tested as the Bolsonaro clan's candidate, and the result is staggering: if the election were held today, Lula and Flávio would be in a technical tie for the second round, each with 41% of voting intentions. That's right, you read that correctly. The eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro not only enters the race but is already running neck-and-neck with the current president.
First Round: A Fragmented Landscape
The poll also simulated the first round with different combinations of candidates. In one scenario, featuring Lula, Flávio, Tarcísio de Freitas, and other names, the race shapes up like this:
- Lula leads with robust numbers, but falls short of an absolute majority.
- Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates second place, holding an advantage over other right-wing contenders.
- Tarcísio de Freitas and other names appear further down the line, but still lag significantly behind.
- The combined vote share of Lula's opponents in the first round suggests that a potential polarisation with Flávio in the second round is more than likely.
The figures show that, even with a fragmentation of votes, Flávio manages to establish himself as the main right-wing candidate, particularly following his father's ineligibility. In all simulations, the senator emerges as the only one capable of forcing a second-round runoff against Lula.
PT on Alert: Government Needs to 'Get Back from Holiday'
While Bolsonaro supporters celebrate the technical tie, behind the scenes in the Planalto Palace the atmosphere is one of alert. A faction within the PT has already begun blaming the government's political coordination for Lula's performance in the polls. "The government needs to get back from holiday," a PT leader fired off in the corridors, referring to the lack of an intense political agenda and the difficulty in delivering on economic policies. Internal dissatisfaction is growing as Flávio's name gains traction in the surveys. Allies of the president acknowledge that the public machinery has failed to translate its deliverables into popular approval, and the electoral landscape is starting to flash an amber light.
The Bolsonaro Base Has a Name: #FLAVIOBOLSONAROMEUPRESIDENTE
Online, the Bolsonaro base has already embraced his candidacy. The hashtag #FLAVIOBOLSONAROMEUPRESIDENTE has gone viral among supporters, who see the senator as the continuation of his father's legacy. "Flávio is prepared, he's the only one capable of uniting the right and defeating Lulismo," wrote a profile with thousands of followers. This spontaneous movement shows that, for a significant portion of the electorate, the family name still carries serious weight. Unlike other potential candidates, the eldest son carries the Bolsonaro DNA and has managed to mobilise the troops without his father's baggage. The question remains: just how far can this wave go?
With the election still a long way off, today's numbers are just a snapshot of the moment. But one thing is certain: the game has changed. Flávio Bolsonaro is no longer a supporting actor; he has stepped into the leading role for an opposition seeking to overturn Lula's frontrunner status. It remains to be seen how the government will react, and whether the PT can stem the tide in the coming months. One thing is for sure: 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most hotly contested elections in recent history.