Flávio Bolsonaro pulls level with Lula in runoff, new poll shows; scenarios explained
A new survey has just leaked from the political backrooms, and it's already shaking up the mood for 2026. For the first time, Flávio Bolsonaro's name has been tested as the Bolsonaro clan's candidate, and the result is a real jaw-dropper: if the election were held today, Lula and Flávio would be in a technical tie in the second round, each with 41% of the voting intentions. You read that right. The former president Jair Bolsonaro's number one son not only enters the race but is already running neck-and-neck with the current president.
First round: a fragmented field
The poll also simulated a first round with different candidate combinations. In one scenario, featuring Lula, Flávio, Tarcísio de Freitas and other names, the race shapes up like this:
- Lula leads with solid numbers, but falls short of an absolute majority.
- Flávio Bolsonaro secures second place, with an edge over other right-wing contenders.
- Tarcísio de Freitas and others trail behind, still a long way off.
- The combined vote share of Lula's opponents in the first round suggests a likely polarised runoff against Flávio.
The figures show that even with the vote fragmented, Flávio is consolidating his position as the main right-wing candidate, especially after his father was declared ineligible. In every simulation, the senator emerges as the only one capable of forcing a second-round showdown with Lula.
PT on alert: government needs to 'get back from its holiday'
While Bolsonaro supporters are celebrating the technical tie, behind the scenes at the Planalto Palace the mood is one of caution. A faction within the PT has already started blaming the government's political strategy for Lula's poll numbers. "The government needs to get back from its holiday," fired off one PT leader in the corridors, a swipe at the perceived lack of a vigorous political agenda and the struggles to deliver on economic priorities. Internal discontent is growing as Flávio's name gains traction in the polls. The president's allies acknowledge that the government machinery has struggled to translate its achievements into popular approval, and the electoral outlook is starting to flash amber.
The Bolsonaro base has its man: #FLAVIOBOLSONAROMEUPRESIDENTE
Online, the Bolsonaro base has already embraced his candidacy. The hashtag #FLAVIOBOLSONAROMEUPRESIDENTE went viral among supporters, who see the senator as the natural heir to his father's legacy. "Flávio is prepared, he's the only one who can unite the right and beat Lulism," wrote one profile with thousands of followers. This groundswell shows that for a significant slice of the electorate, the family name still carries immense weight. Unlike other potential candidates, the number one son embodies the Bolsonaro DNA and has managed to rally the troops without the baggage his father carries. The big question is: how far can this wave go?
With the election still a way off, today's numbers are just a snapshot of the moment. But one thing is certain: the game has changed. Flávio Bolsonaro is no longer a supporting act; he has stepped into the lead role for an opposition aiming to topple Lula's front-runner status. Now it remains to be seen how the government will respond, and whether the PT can stop the bleeding in the coming months. One thing's for sure: 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most hotly contested elections in recent memory.