Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in dead heat for second round, new poll shows; breaking down the scenarios
A new survey has just leaked from political backrooms, already stirring the pot for 2026. For the first time, Flávio Bolsonaro's name has been tested as the Bolsonaro clan's candidate, and the result is breathtaking: if the election were held today, Lula and Flávio would be technically tied in the second round, each with 41% of voting intentions. You read that right. Jair Bolsonaro's first-born son not only enters the race but is already level-pegging with the current president.
First round: a fragmented landscape
The poll also simulated the first round with different candidate combinations. In one scenario featuring Lula, Flávio, Tarcísio de Freitas, and others, the race shapes up like this:
- Lula leads with robust numbers but falls short of an outright majority.
- Flávio Bolsonaro solidifies second place, holding an advantage over other right-wing contenders.
- Tarcísio de Freitas and other names follow, but still trail significantly behind.
- The combined total of Lula's first-round opponents suggests that a potential polarised runoff against Flávio is more than likely.
The figures indicate that even with votes scattered, Flávio manages to establish himself as the main right-wing candidate, particularly following his father's ineligibility. In every simulation, the senator emerges as the only one capable of forcing a second-round showdown with Lula.
PT on high alert: government needs to 'get back to work'
While Bolsonaro supporters celebrate the technical tie, the mood behind the scenes at the Planalto Palace is one of alert. A faction within the PT has already begun blaming the government's political coordination for Lula's polling numbers. "The government needs to get back from its holidays," a senior PT figure snapped in the corridors, a dig at the lack of intense political activity and the struggle to deliver on economic agendas. Internal discontent is growing as Flávio's name gains traction in the surveys. The president's allies acknowledge that the state machinery has failed to translate policy deliveries into public approval, and the electoral landscape is starting to flash warning lights.
The Bolsonaro base has its man: #FLAVIOBOLSONAROMEUPRESIDENTE
Online, the Bolsonaro grassroots have already rallied behind his candidacy. The hashtag #FLAVIOBOLSONAROMEUPRESIDENTE has gone viral among supporters, who see the senator as the continuation of his father's legacy. "Flávio is prepared, he's the only one who can unite the right and defeat Lulismo," wrote one profile with thousands of followers. This spontaneous movement shows that, for a significant portion of the electorate, the family name still carries immense weight. Unlike other potential candidates, the first-born son carries the Bolsonaro DNA and has managed to mobilise the troops without the baggage his father carries. The lingering question is: how far can this wave go?
With the election still a way off, today's numbers are just a snapshot of the moment. But one thing is certain: the game has changed. Flávio Bolsonaro is no longer a supporting actor; he has stepped into the lead role for an opposition aiming to overturn Lula's frontrunner status. It remains to be seen how the government will respond, and whether the PT can stem the tide in the coming months. One thing is for sure: 2026 promises to be one of the most fiercely contested elections in recent history.