Flávio Bolsonaro in technical tie with Lula in second round, poll shows; understand the scenarios

A new survey has just leaked from the political backrooms, and it's already stirring things up for 2026. For the first time, Flávio Bolsonaro's name has been tested as the Bolsonaro clan's candidate, and the result is staggering: if the election were held today, Lula and Flávio would be technically tied in a second-round run-off, each with 41% of voting intentions. Yes, you read that right. The first son of former president Jair Bolsonaro not only enters the race but is already running neck-and-neck with the current president.

First round: a fragmented scenario

The poll also simulated a first round with different combinations of candidates. In one scenario featuring Lula, Flávio, Tarcísio de Freitas, and other names, the race shapes up like this:

• Lula leads with robust numbers, but falls short of an absolute majority.
• Flávio Bolsonaro solidifies second place, holding an advantage over other right-wing contenders.
• Tarcísio de Freitas and other names trail behind, still far off the pace.
• The combined vote share of Lula's first-round opponents suggests a likely polarisation with Flávio in the second round.

The figures show that even with votes scattered among multiple candidates, Flávio manages to establish himself as the main right-wing figure, especially following his father's ineligibility. In all simulations, the senator emerges as the only one capable of forcing a second-round showdown against Lula.

PT on alert: government needs to 'get back from holiday'

While Bolsonaro supporters celebrate the technical tie, the mood behind the scenes at the Planalto Palace is one of alert. A faction within the PT has already begun blaming the government's political coordination for Lula's poll numbers. "The government needs to get back from holiday," a PT leader fired off in the corridors, referring to the lack of intense political agenda and the struggle to deliver on economic policies. Internal dissatisfaction is growing as Flávio's name gains traction in the surveys. Allies of the president acknowledge that the public machinery hasn't been able to translate deliverables into popular approval, and the electoral landscape is starting to flash yellow.

The Bolsonaro base already has its man: #FLAVIOBOLSONAROMEUPRESIDENTE

Online, the Bolsonaro grassroots have already embraced his candidacy. The hashtag #FLAVIOBOLSONAROMEUPRESIDENTE has gone viral among supporters, who see the senator as the continuation of his father's legacy. "Flávio is prepared, he's the only one capable of uniting the right and defeating Lulismo," wrote a profile with thousands of followers. This spontaneous movement shows that for a significant portion of the electorate, the family name still carries serious weight. Unlike other potential candidates, the first son carries the Bolsonaro DNA and has managed to mobilise the troops without the baggage his father carries. The lingering question is: how far can this wave go?

With the election still far off, today's numbers are just a snapshot of the moment. But one thing is certain: the game has changed. Flávio Bolsonaro is no longer a supporting actor; he has taken centre stage for an opposition looking to overturn Lula's favourite status. The question now is how the government will respond, and whether the PT can stop the bleeding in the coming months. One thing's for sure: 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most hotly contested elections in recent history.