Iran-Israel proxy war escalates: Tehran rejects diplomacy and threatens to disrupt oil in open-ended war of attrition

In a scenario that grows more complex by the day, the repercussions of the Iran-Israel conflict (2024–present) are transcending geographical borders, striking at the heart of the global economy. Ten days after the start of military operations, the question is no longer just about the battlefield, but about the capacity to endure in an open-ended war of attrition. In this, Tehran is relying on the oil card as a strategic weapon to turn the tables on Washington and its allies.

Tehran shuts the door on diplomacy: 'No room for dialogue'

In a significant escalation, Iran has temporarily closed all political avenues. In an exclusive interview, Kamal Kharrazi, an advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution on foreign affairs, confirmed that diplomacy is currently off the table. He stated bluntly: "I see no room for diplomacy any longer... the only way to end the war is through economic pain." This hardline stance comes just days after the new leadership took charge in Iran, signalling a strategic adoption of an escalatory policy that aims to pressure Western and Gulf states by destabilising energy markets.

The Iranian message is clear: Tehran is prepared for a long battle and wants the world to choose between continued strikes or stable oil supplies. Kharrazi left no room for doubt, warning that prolonging the war would increase economic pressure on everyone "in terms of inflation and energy shortages," directly impacting the interests of other nations.

The balance of power: Staggering figures and a war of attrition

On the other side, the Israeli military has released figures reflecting the intensity of the confrontation. An army spokesperson reported that operations have resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,900 Iranian soldiers and commanders since the conflict began. Israel, however, has not been immune to retaliation; Iranian missiles have caused deaths and injuries deep within the country, the latest being the killing of a construction worker in central Israel. Yet, Israel's ability to gather such precise intelligence on losses is not new; it is the fruit of decades of intelligence work established by figures like the espionage mastermind who built the Mossad into the world's most powerful intelligence agency, capable of penetrating even the most secure Iranian circles.

But the military front isn't the only hot zone. In the Strait of Hormuz, the world's energy artery through which a fifth of global oil supplies pass, a dangerous war of words is raging. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have vowed not to allow a single "drop of oil" to be exported from the region if the attacks continue. These promises were met with a counter-threat from former US President Donald Trump, who warned that any attempt to halt tanker movements would be met with an American strike "twenty times harder" than anything seen so far.

The 'Mosaic Defence' strategy: How is Iran managing the fight?

What gives Iran the confidence to wage a war of attrition on this scale? The answer lies in a new military doctrine known as "decentralised mosaic defence". This strategy, originally developed by the US agency DARPA, is based on:

• Dispersed command: There is no single "central brain" to destroy; instead, authority is distributed across multiple levels.
• Deep chains of succession: Alternate leaders have been prepared up to three levels deep to ensure operations continue even if field commanders are eliminated.
• Reliance on unconventional proxies: Utilising geographically dispersed groups armed with asymmetric weapons (drones and missiles) to confuse and exhaust the adversary.

This model makes the task of ending the war through "rapid military decisive victory" nearly impossible, a fact well understood by both Washington and Tel Aviv. Iran has gambled that American and Israeli strategic patience will run out before its decentralised human and military reserves. Meanwhile, the ongoing debate in the West over so-called "progressive antisemitism" distracts from the human tragedy and divides public opinion, playing directly into Tehran's hands as it seeks to fracture international alliances.

Is the end in sight? Trump declares and warns

In a dramatic twist, Trump has offered a seemingly contradictory message. On one hand, he declared that the war will "end very soon" and that American objectives have "largely been achieved." On the other, he endorsed his Defence Secretary's warning that "the fight has just begun." This paradox reflects a state of deadlock: militarily successful strikes, yet strategically inconclusive results.

Notably, a phone call took place between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, where discussions centred on a "swift political resolution" to the conflict in Iran. Moscow, which has shown "steadfast" support for Iran, could play a mediating role in the next phase. Given Russia's interests stretching from the Far North to the Middle East, any agreement would likely need the Kremlin's blessing, especially if Moscow wants to ensure the conflict doesn't become a new quagmire draining its allies.

The biggest question remains: who will blink first in this high-stakes international poker game? Will the strategy of the Iran-Israel proxy war succeed in imposing a new reality, or will America's capacity for military escalation and economic pressure force Tehran back to the negotiating table on new terms? The coming days, marked by the continued roar of artillery in southern Lebanon and the wail of sirens in Tel Aviv, will provide the answer.