Arctic cyclone arrives: severe weather alert, 100 km/h winds and snow at low altitudes. Emanuele Bompan (3BMeteo) explains what’s in store

We're almost there. After weeks of almost spring-like weather that had us fooled, winter is about to wake up with a vengeance. Just one look at today's models tells you this isn't the usual downturn: a genuine Arctic cyclone is heading straight for Italy. And when someone like Emanuele Bompan, the familiar face of 3B Meteo, calls it a "significant event", anyone with a bit of history knows he isn't just throwing empty words around. We're talking about a vortex capable of bringing the country to its knees for at least 48 hours.

The Arctic blast will start making its presence felt in the coming hours, but the peak is expected between Thursday and Friday. The vortex will deepen over the Ligurian Sea, setting up the perfect conditions to bring freezing air and instability across the entire peninsula. The key word is: wind. Gusts could exceed 100 km/h along the Tyrrhenian coasts and on the Apennine ridges. Local authorities have already started issuing strong wind warnings in several regions, from Trentino down to lower Lazio. Best advice: put away anything that could take flight from balconies and gardens.

The cyclone's three main impacts: here's what to expect

To get a clear picture of what's about to happen, you need to look at three key factors. First is the wind, which will blow with gale-force intensity. Second is the snow, which will return to unusually low altitudes for this time of year. Third is the speed at which this will all unfold.

• Gale-force winds: Gusts exceeding 90-100 km/h across Tuscany, Lazio, Campania and the Apennine areas. Rough seas along exposed coastlines.
• Snow at low altitudes: Expected below 600-800 metres in the central Apennines. A few flakes aren't ruled out on the plains between Emilia and the Marche region.
• Rapid movement: The worst conditions will be concentrated within 36 hours. From the weekend, high pressure will try to regain control.

Where and when it will hit hardest

This cyclone isn't going to be shy. We're talking about a vortex that will feed itself over our sea, bringing extreme conditions in quick succession. In the Northwest and over the Alps, snowfall will be heavy above 600-800 metres, with exceptional accumulations above 1500 metres. For the central Tyrrhenian region, the main issues will be violent thunderstorms and rough seas, with snow in the Tuscan-Emilian Apennines at depths reminiscent of mid-winter. In the South and on the islands, the conditions will worsen between Thursday and Friday, with the risk of violent downpours in Sicily and Calabria just as the vortex shifts eastward.

Anyone planning to travel would do well to check 3BMeteo before heading out. This evening's Weather Forecasts show gusts strong enough to disrupt traffic, with possible closures of roads and motorways over the Apennine passes. And for those in Rome, I know you're used to dealing with all sorts, but get ready for a sharp drop in temperatures between Thursday and Friday, accompanied by winds that will send umbrellas flying.

The good news? When a cyclone packs this much punch, it usually burns out quickly. From the weekend, high pressure will try to peek through, bringing back some stability and milder temperatures. But until then, hold on tight: winter has decided to remind us it's still here, and it'll do so with the roar of the wind and the quiet blanket of unseasonal snow.