Arctic cyclone on the way: severe weather warning, 100 km/h winds and low-altitude snow. Emanuele Bompan (3BMeteo) explains what's in store

We're almost there. After weeks of a deceptively spring-like climate, winter is about to snap back with a vengeance. Just one look at today's models shows this is more than the usual downturn: a true Arctic cyclone is heading straight for Italy. And when a figure like Emanuele Bompan, the well-known face of 3B Meteo, calls this a "significant event", anyone who’s been paying attention knows he’s not just making empty statements. We're talking about a vortex capable of bringing the country to a standstill for at least 48 hours.

The Arctic blast will start to make its presence felt in the coming hours, but the peak is expected between Thursday and Friday. The vortex will intensify over the Ligurian Sea, setting up the perfect conditions to bring freezing air and instability across the entire peninsula. The key word is wind. Gusts could top 100 km/h along the Tyrrhenian coasts and over the Apennine ridges. Local authorities have already begun issuing strong wind warnings in several regions, from Trentino down to lower Lazio: it's a good idea to secure anything that might be blown away on balconies and in gardens.

The cyclone's three key features: what we need to expect

To get a clear picture of what's about to unfold, we need to look at three key factors. First is the wind, which will blow with gale-force intensity. Second is the snow, which will make an appearance at unusually low altitudes for this time of year. Third is the speed at which all of this will unfold.

• Gale-force winds: Gusts exceeding 90-100 km/h across Tuscany, Lazio, Campania, and the Apennine areas. Rough seas along exposed coastlines.
• Low-altitude snow: Expected below 600-800 metres across the central Apennines. A few flakes on the plains between Emilia and Marche are also possible.
• Quick-moving system: The worst of it will be concentrated within 36 hours. By the weekend, a high-pressure system will try to regain control.

Where and when it will hit hardest

This cyclone won't be subtle. We're looking at a vortex that will feed itself over our seas, bringing a sequence of extreme conditions. In the northwest and over the Alps, heavy snowfall is expected above 600-800 metres, with exceptional accumulations beyond 1500 metres. For the central Tyrrhenian regions, the main issues will be severe thunderstorms and coastal storms, with snow on the Tuscan-Emilian Apennines at elevations reminiscent of mid-winter. In the south and over the islands, the weather will worsen between Thursday and Friday, with a risk of violent downpours in Sicily and Calabria as the vortex moves eastward.

Anyone planning to travel would do well to check 3BMeteo before heading out. This evening's Weather Forecasts indicate gusts strong enough to disrupt traffic, with potential closures of road and motorway sections over the Apennine passes. And for those in Rome, I know you're used to just about anything, but prepare for a sharp temperature drop between Thursday and Friday, accompanied by winds that will send umbrellas flying.

The good news? When a cyclone packs this much punch, it usually burns out quickly. By the weekend, a high-pressure system will try to peek through, bringing back some stability and milder temperatures. But until then, hold on tight: winter has decided to remind us it's still around, and it will do so with the roar of the wind and the quiet blanket of unseasonal snow.