Arctic cyclone incoming: severe weather alert, 100 km/h winds and low-altitude snow. Emanuele Bompan (3BMeteo) on what to expect

We're nearly there. After weeks of almost spring-like weather that had us fooled, winter is about to return with a vengeance. A quick look at today's models makes it clear this is no ordinary downturn: a genuine Arctic-origin cyclone is heading straight for Italy. And when a well-known figure like Emanuele Bompan from 3B Meteo calls it a "significant event", anyone with a decent memory knows he's not just making noise. This is a vortex capable of bringing the country to a standstill for at least 48 hours.

The Arctic intrusion will start making its presence felt within the next few hours, but the peak is expected between Thursday and Friday. The vortex will deepen over the Ligurian Sea, creating the perfect conditions to channel freezing air and instability across the entire peninsula. The key word here is: wind. Gusts could exceed 100 km/h along the Tyrrhenian coasts and across the Apennine ridges. Local authorities have already started issuing strong wind alerts in several regions, from Trentino down to lower Lazio; the advice is to secure anything on balconies and in gardens that could be blown away.

The cyclone's three active fronts: here's what to expect

To get a clear picture of what's about to happen, we need to look at three key factors. First, the wind, which will blow with gale-force intensity. Second, the snow, which will return at unusually low altitudes for this time of year. Third, the speed at which all of this will unfold.

• Gale-force winds: Gusts exceeding 90-100 km/h across Tuscany, Lazio, Campania, and the Apennine areas. Storm surges on exposed coastlines.
• Low-altitude snow: Expected below 600-800 metres on the central Apennines. Flurries in the lowlands between Emilia and Marche are not out of the question.
• Rapid progression: The worst conditions will be concentrated within 36 hours. From the weekend, high pressure will try to regain control.

Where and when it will hit hardest

This cyclone won't hold back. We're talking about a vortex that will self-fuel over our seas, delivering extreme conditions in quick succession. In the northwest and across the Alps, heavy snowfall is expected above 600-800 metres, with exceptional accumulations above 1500 metres. In the central Tyrrhenian region, the main concerns will be violent thunderstorms and storm surges, with snow on the Tuscan-Emilian Apennines at depths that recall the heart of winter. In the south and on the islands, conditions will deteriorate between Thursday and Friday, with the risk of intense downpours in Sicily and Calabria just as the vortex shifts eastward.

Anyone planning to travel would be wise to check 3BMeteo before heading out. The Weather Forecasts for this evening indicate gusts strong enough to cause travel disruptions, with possible closures of roads and motorways over Apennine passes. And for those in Rome, I know you're used to everything, but brace yourselves for a sharp drop in temperatures between Thursday and Friday, accompanied by winds that will give your umbrellas a real workout.

The good news? When a cyclone packs this much punch, it usually burns out quickly. From the weekend, high pressure will try to peek through, bringing some stability and milder temperatures. But until then, hold on tight: winter has decided to remind us it's still here, and it will do so with the roar of the wind and the quiet blanket of unseasonable snow.