Jet Fuel Shortage 2026: How the Iran War Could Disrupt Your Flights from New Zealand – A Practical Guide

If you've tried booking a flight from Auckland to Bangkok or Singapore in the last few days, you've probably seen it with your own eyes: prices are through the roof. This isn't a temporary blip – it's the new reality amid the jet fuel shortage sparked by the war in Iran. I'm not talking about a minor price tweak – we're looking at surcharges that'll make your eyes water. Let me, as a veteran of the industry, explain what's going on and how you can still reach your destination without getting completely stung.

Why the Iran war is now hitting your ticket price

Many people think a war in the Persian Gulf is a world away. Far from it. Since late February, the Strait of Hormuz – the world's most crucial oil and fuel chokepoint – has effectively been shut. That's triggered a domino effect that's hitting our wallets directly. Industry insiders expect New Zealand households could be looking at around $1,700 a year in extra costs. A big chunk of that falls on flying.

The price of jet fuel has nearly doubled since the start of the year, sitting at around $1,650 US per tonne. And because jet fuel is the lifeblood of any airline (making up to 30% of operating costs), carriers have to react. They can't just wave a magic wand.

The big jet fuel shortage review: What's the situation on the ground?

Before you panic: a jet fuel shortage doesn't mean planes will run out of fuel tomorrow. But supply chains are under extreme strain. A technical director from a major European airline warned just last week that availability at some Asian airports is already "difficult". Imagine flying to Phuket, but there's barely any fuel for the return trip. That's not fantasy – it's a real concern keeping the industry up at night.

For us in New Zealand, things still look stable for now. Airlines like Air New Zealand and our partner carriers assure us that operations are running normally. But the air is getting thinner – both in the cabin and in your bank account.

The ultimate guide: How to use the jet fuel shortage to your advantage

Yes, you read that right. Even in this crisis, there are strategies to avoid being ripped off. Here's my jet fuel shortage guide with the key dos and don'ts:

• Book early, but stay flexible: A CEO of a budget European airline recommends booking flights as early as possible. He expects prices to keep climbing if the war drags on. But: look for flexible fares. For package holidays, a price increase of up to 8% after booking is allowed if jet fuel prices explode – a nasty little clause many travellers don't know about.
• Avoid shaky hubs: Connecting flights via Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi are risky right now. Gulf carriers are struggling massively with the restrictions. Better to take a direct flight or route through a safe European hub.
• Keep an eye on local carriers: Airlines like Air New Zealand and their partners have raised fuel surcharges, but clever hedging means they're not yet at breaking point. Long-haul flights to North America might actually offer better value for money right now than overcrowded Asian routes.

What does the jet fuel shortage mean for your summer 2026 holiday?

I won't sugar-coat it: it's going to be an expensive summer. Reliable industry sources report that flights to places like Bangkok or Mumbai have at times cost two to five times the usual fare. That will ease a bit, but prices will stay high. Interestingly, many Kiwis are rethinking their plans. Instead of flying to Australia or Thailand, the trend is swinging back toward local getaways or classic Mediterranean destinations. Demand for Spain, Italy or Turkey is booming because prices there aren't going quite as crazy.

My advice: if you absolutely must travel long-haul this summer, accept the extra cost as a given and book immediately. Hesitate, and you'll either miss out on a seat altogether or end up paying extortionate rates. And forget about prices dropping – as long as fighter jets are circling over the Middle East, the jet fuel shortage will be our constant companion.