Jet Fuel Shortage 2026: How the Iran War Will Impact Your Flights from Ireland – A Guide

If you've tried booking a flight from Dublin to Bangkok or Singapore in the last few days, you've probably seen it with your own eyes: prices are through the roof. This isn't a temporary blip – it's the new reality amidst the jet fuel shortage triggered by the war in Iran. I'm not talking about a small price tweak – we're looking at surcharges that really sting when you see them. Let me, as a veteran of the industry, explain what's going on and how you can still reach your destination without losing your shirt.

Why the Iran war is now hitting your ticket price

Many people think a war in the Persian Gulf is far away. Not even close. Since late February, the Strait of Hormuz – the world's most important oil and fuel chokepoint – has been effectively closed. That has triggered a domino effect that hits us straight in the wallet. Industry insiders estimate that Irish households could face extra costs of around €1,700 per year as a result. A big chunk of that comes from flying.

The price of jet fuel has nearly doubled since the start of the year, to about $1,650 per tonne. And since jet fuel is the lifeblood of any airline (making up to 30% of operating costs), carriers have to react. They can't just wave a magic wand.

The big jet fuel shortage review: What's the situation on the ground?

Before you panic: a jet fuel shortage doesn't mean planes will run out of fuel tomorrow. But supply chains are under extreme strain. A technical director from a major European airline warned just last week that availability at some Asian airports is already "difficult". Imagine flying to Phuket but fuel for the return leg is scarce. That's not a fantasy – it's a real concern for the industry right now.

For us in Ireland, things still look stable for the moment. Airlines like Aer Lingus and Ryanair say operations at Dublin hub are running normally. But the air is getting thinner – both on the plane and in your wallet.

The ultimate guide: How to use the jet fuel shortage to your advantage

Yes, you read that right. Even in this crisis, there are strategies to avoid getting ripped off. Here's my jet fuel shortage guide with the key dos and don'ts:

• Book early, but flexibly: One airline CEO advises booking flights as early as possible. He expects prices to keep rising if the war drags on. But watch out for flexible fares. For package holidays, a price increase of up to 8% of the total after booking is allowed if jet fuel prices explode. That's a nasty clause many people aren't aware of.
• Avoid shaky hubs: Flights connecting through Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi are risky right now. Gulf carriers are struggling massively with the restrictions. Better to take a direct flight or connect via a stable European hub.
• Keep an eye on Irish carriers: Aer Lingus and Ryanair have increased their "International Surcharge" (fuel surcharge). But thanks to clever hedging, they aren't at their limit just yet. Long-haul flights to North America might offer better value for money in the short term than the overcrowded Asia routes.

What does the jet fuel shortage mean for summer holidays 2026?

I won't sugar-coat it: it's going to be an expensive summer. Reliable industry sources report that flights to Bangkok or Mumbai have at times cost two to five times the normal fare. That will settle down a bit, but prices will remain high. Interestingly, many Irish travellers are rethinking their plans. Instead of flying to Australia or Thailand, the trend is swinging back strongly towards local breaks or classic Mediterranean destinations. Demand for Spain, Portugal or the south of France is booming because prices there aren't going quite as crazy.

My advice: if you absolutely must go long-haul this summer, accept the extra cost as a given and book immediately. Anyone who hesitates will either miss out on a seat altogether or pay extortionate prices. And forget about hoping for prices to drop – as long as fighter jets are circling over the Middle East, the jet fuel shortage will be our constant companion.