Eurovision odds 2026: Portugal causes a stir – could this be the next ABBA?

Well, here it is. Portugal's Eurovision representative for the 2026 season has been confirmed. Last night's Festival da Canção final left no one cold, and it immediately sent odds at betting agencies into a wild spin. If you haven't had a chance to check the latest Eurovision odds yet, now's the time. Something has come out of Lisbon that's got old-school Eurovision fans dreaming and punters crunching the numbers.

Bandidos do Cante. That's a name worth remembering. Their version of the song Rosa was absolutely hypnotic. Listening to the live broadcast last night, I immediately thought there was something here that would've resonated with European juries decades ago. And what did the punters do? They reacted. Before last night, Portugal was sitting mid-table in the odds, but now the vibe is reminiscent of 2017 when Salvador Sobral swept across Europe. Is this a repeat? Hardly, but it carries that same sense of authenticity.

Portugal's surprise move and the punters' pulse

The final left no doubt. Even with several strong performers on stage, Bandidos do Cante won the hearts of both the public and the jury by a landslide. This is exactly why I follow Eurovision, and particularly the betting that swirls around it. It's never just about the maths. It's about emotion, about story, and about that same magic that once propelled ABBA to global fame. Take, for instance, the recent book The Making of ABBA: Against the Odds: Inside the Triumph and Turmoil of ABBA's Rise to Global Fame. It describes how everyone thought they knew what worked, until someone came along and shattered all expectations. This Portuguese outfit is doing the same thing.

• Bandidos do Cante – the name has attitude, and you can hear it in the music too.
• The song "Rosa" – melodic, yet still rough around the edges. A perfect combo.
• The live performance – the kind you'd want to see in person.
• The betting odds – the numbers are already speaking for themselves.

And at this point, I have to get a bit historical. Who remembers The Rob Furber Story: From Bookies to Eurovision? This guy has seen it all. He's been behind the counters at betting agencies, watching big favourites fall and underdogs rise. His story is packed with lessons that in Eurovision, nothing's certain until it's over. If Rob were here, he'd probably say this Portuguese band is exactly the dangerous kind you need to keep an eye on. The odds could still change plenty of times before May.

When betting and entertainment collide

There's another book worth a read before you put your own money on the line. It's called The Gambler: My Secret Life In TV Betting... And Taking The Biggest Chance Of All. It dives into this very phenomenon: what it feels like when the stakes are high and the whole country's watching. The members of Bandidos do Cante aren't professional gamblers, but they're taking a bigger risk now than anyone could have imagined. Their style is about as far from traditional Eurovision pop as you can get, and that could be their ace in the hole.

I'm reminiscing now about sitting in a small bar in Lisbon a few years back, and the locals telling me about this tradition – cante alentejano. It's Portuguese folk singing, a male choir performing without instruments. It's a UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage. And now it's on the Eurovision stage. This isn't some manufactured show; this is music straight from the soul. And that's exactly what appeals to Europeans tired of formulaic, factory-made tunes.

What to make of all this?

The Eurovision odds are buzzing right now. Portugal has shot up to the top tier, and it's thoroughly deserved. But as always, it's a long road ahead. Anything can happen before the final. Betting agencies thrive on this uncertainty, and we're right there with them. If you want to fully enjoy Eurovision, keep an eye on the odds, but don't forget the music itself. The Making of ABBA: Against the Odds teaches us that success never comes without a fight. Plenty of people thought ABBA was too weird back in the day – until they took over the world.

Bandidos do Cante's story is just beginning. Their journey from Lisbon to the host city in Switzerland is packed with expectations, pressure, and hopefully those unforgettable moments that make us watch Eurovision in the first place. For my part, I tip my hat to Portugal for daring to send something this original. And believe me, this could be the biggest betting story of the year.