Eurovision odds 2026: Portugal is creating a buzz – could this be the next ABBA?

Well, here it is. Portugal's Eurovision representative for the 2026 season. The Festival da Canção final, decided last night, left no one cold, and it immediately sent odds at betting agencies into a frenzy. If you haven't had a chance to check the latest Eurovision odds yet, now is the time. Because something has exploded out of Lisbon that has old-school Eurovision fans dreaming big and punters scrambling to calculate their chances.

Bandidos do Cante. That's a name worth remembering. Their version of the song 'Rosa' was absolutely hypnotic. Listening to the live broadcast last night, I immediately thought there's something here that would have resonated with European juries decades ago. And what did the punters do? They reacted. Before last night, Portugal was mid-tier in the odds, but now the vibe is reminiscent of 2017 when Salvador Sobral took Europe by storm. Is this a repeat? Hardly, but it carries that same sense of authenticity.

Portugal's surprise move and the pulse of the punters

The final left no doubt. Even with several strong performers on stage, Bandidos do Cante won the hearts of both the audience and the jury by a landslide. This is exactly why I follow Eurovision, and particularly the betting that swirls around it. It's never just about the maths. It's about feeling, story, and that same bit of magic that once propelled ABBA to global stardom. Take, for instance, the recent book The Making of ABBA: Against the Odds: Inside the Triumph and Turmoil of ABBA's Rise to Global Fame. It describes how everyone thought they knew what worked, until someone came along and smashed all expectations. This Portuguese ensemble is doing the same.

• Bandidos do Cante – the name carries an attitude that comes through in the music.
• The song "Rosa" – melodic, yet still has an edge. A perfect combo.
• The live performance – the kind of thing you'd want to see in person.
• The betting odds – the numbers are already telling a story.

And at this point, I have to get a bit historical. Who remembers The Rob Furber Story: From Bookies to Eurovision? This bloke has seen it all. He's sat behind the counters at betting agencies and watched massive favourites fall while underdogs rose up. His story is packed with lessons that in Eurovision, nothing is certain until it's over. If Rob were here, he'd probably say this Portuguese band is exactly the dangerous type you need to keep an eye on. The odds could still shift many times before May.

When betting and entertainment collide

There's another book worth a read before you put your own money down. It's called The Gambler: My Secret Life In TV Betting... And Taking The Biggest Chance Of All. It goes through this exact phenomenon: what it feels like when the stakes are high and the whole country is watching. The members of Bandidos do Cante aren't professional gamblers, but they're taking a bigger risk now than anyone could have imagined. Their style is about as far from traditional Eurovision pop as you can get, and that could be their ace card.

It takes me back to a few years ago, sitting in a small bar in Lisbon, where the locals told me about this tradition – cante alentejano. It's a Portuguese folk style where a male choir sings without instrumental accompaniment. It's a UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage. And now it's on the Eurovision stage. This isn't some manufactured show; this is music that comes straight from the soul. And that's exactly what appeals to Europeans who are sick of cookie-cutter factory tunes.

What to make of all this?

The Eurovision odds are buzzing right now. Portugal has shot up to the top tier, and it's completely deserved. But as always, it's a long road. Plenty can happen before the final. Betting agencies thrive on this uncertainty, and we go along for the ride. If you want to enjoy Eurovision to the fullest, keep an eye on the odds, but don't forget the music itself. The Making of ABBA: Against the Odds teaches us that success never comes without a fight. Even ABBA was considered too out there by many before they conquered the world.

Bandidos do Cante's story is just beginning. Their journey from Lisbon to the host city in Switzerland is filled with expectations, pressure, and hopefully, those unforgettable moments that make us watch Eurovision in the first place. For my money, I tip my hat to Portugal for daring to send something so original. And believe me, this could be the biggest betting story of the year.