Eurovision 2026 odds: Portugal is causing a stir – could this be the next ABBA?

So, there we have it. Portugal's Eurovision act for the 2026 season. Last night's Festival da Canção final left no one cold, and it immediately triggered a dramatic shake-up in the betting markets. If you haven't had a chance to glance at the latest Eurovision odds yet, now's the time. Lisbon has just delivered something that has seasoned Eurovision fans dreaming and punters scrambling to calculate the probabilities.

Bandidos do Cante. That's a name to remember. Their version of the song 'Rosa' was utterly hypnotic. Listening to the live broadcast last night, I immediately thought: this has that certain something that resonated with European juries decades ago. And what did the bookies do? They reacted. Before last night, Portugal was mid-table in the odds, but now the vibe is reminiscent of 2017, when Salvador Sobral took Europe by storm. Is this a repeat? Hardly, but there's the same feeling of authenticity here.

Portugal's surprise move and the bookies' pulse

The final left no room for doubt. Although there were several strong performers on stage, Bandidos do Cante won decisively, capturing both the public's and the jury's hearts. This is precisely why I follow Eurovision, and particularly the betting that surrounds it. It's never just about the maths. It's about emotion, narrative, and that same magic that once propelled ABBA to global stardom. Consider, for instance, the recent book The Making of ABBA: Against the Odds: Inside the Triumph and Turmoil of ABBA's Rise to Global Fame. It describes how everyone thought they knew what worked, until someone came along and shattered all preconceptions. This Portuguese ensemble is doing just that.

• Bandidos do Cante – the name carries an attitude that's also present in their music.
• The song 'Rosa' – melodic, yet rough around the edges. A perfect combination.
• The live performance – the kind you'd want to see in person.
• The betting odds – the numbers are already speaking for themselves.

And at this point, I have to get a bit historical. Who remembers The Rob Furber Story: From Bookies to Eurovision? That guy has seen it all. He's been behind the counters at betting shops, witnessing big favourites fall and underdogs rise. His story is packed with lessons that nothing in Eurovision is certain until it's over. If Rob were here, he'd probably say that this Portuguese band is exactly the kind of dangerous contender to keep an eye on. The odds could still change many times before May.

When betting and entertainment collide

There's another book worth reading before you put your own money down. It's called The Gambler: My Secret Life In TV Betting... And Taking The Biggest Chance Of All. It explores that very same phenomenon: what it feels like when the stakes are high and the whole nation is watching. The members of Bandidos do Cante aren't professional gamblers, but they're now taking a bigger risk than anyone could have imagined. Their style is about as far from traditional Eurovision pop as you can get, and that could be their ace in the hole.

It brings to mind a memory: sitting in a small bar in Lisbon a few years ago, where the locals told me about this tradition – cante alentejano. It's a Portuguese folk style, a male choir singing without instrumental accompaniment. It's a UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage. And now it's on the Eurovision stage. This isn't some manufactured show; this is music that wells up from deep within the soul. And that's precisely what appeals to a European audience tired of formulaic, factory-produced songs.

What to make of it all?

The Eurovision odds are buzzing right now. Portugal has surged into the top tier, and it's entirely deserved. But, as always, it's a long road ahead. Anything can happen before the final. The bookmakers thrive on this uncertainty, and we get swept up in it too. If you want to fully enjoy Eurovision, follow the odds, but don't forget the music itself. The Making of ABBA: Against the Odds teaches us that success never comes without a struggle. Even ABBA was considered too odd by many before they conquered the world.

Bandidos do Cante's story is just beginning. Their journey from Lisbon to the host city in Switzerland is filled with expectations, pressure, and, hopefully, those unforgettable moments that are the very reason we watch Eurovision. For my part, I tip my hat to Portugal for daring to send something so original. And believe me, this could turn out to be the biggest betting story of the year.