MarineTraffic reveals: How we're seeing the hidden crash in Hormuz

I logged into MarineTraffic last night, something I do as often as others check the weather app. But what greeted me made me raise my eyebrows. Off the Strait of Hormuz, the queues of tankers had grown into a stationary band of steel. The satellite images don't lie: the world's most important oil artery has become clogged, and we're already seeing the consequences in petrol prices in Gothenburg.

Why Hormuz is the world's bottleneck

It's no secret that tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran have reached boiling point this week. But when I talk to colleagues in the shipping industry, no one is talking about politics – everyone has their eyes firmly fixed on MarineTraffic. We see how Iranian patrol boats are playing cat and mouse with supertankers, how insurance premiums are skyrocketing, and how shipping companies are starting to get cold feet. It's not about a few thousand barrels a day; it's about 20 per cent of the world's oil that has to pass through this narrow strait.

My old teacher at Chalmers used to say: 'If you want to understand the global economy, follow a container.' Today, I'd rather follow a VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) on MarineTraffic. That's where you see the truth. Crude oil prices are bouncing like a yo-yo, and everyone in trading knows that this isn't speculation right now – it's pure panic. Iran has threatened to close the strait before, but this time it feels different. In fact, we're seeing several vessels change their AIS status to 'not under command' or drop anchor in the middle of the shipping lane. That's a classic sign: no one dares to go in.

What MarineTraffic is revealing right now

I've been digging into data from the platform over the past few days, and here are four things everyone should keep in mind:

• Oil tankers on standby: At least 15 vessels carrying a total of over 20 million barrels of oil are stationary off Fujairah. They simply don't dare to proceed.
• LNG ships being diverted: Several gas carriers that normally head for Europe via Suez have turned south – they're taking the long way around Africa instead. That costs time and money.
• Iran flags its own vessels: Through MarineTraffic, you can see how Iranian Revolutionary Guard vessels are moving close to merchant ships. It's pure harassment, and it's visible in the positions.
• US Navy making its presence felt: The USS Eisenhower and a few destroyers are positioned right at the entrance. It's a clear signal, but so far it hasn't got the traffic moving.

This isn't just trivia for shipping nerds. Every stationary vessel means delayed deliveries of everything from electronics to cooking oil. And for us in Sweden, which is completely dependent on imports, this is a wake-up call. Just look at what's happening to the price of a diesel car – or your next iPhone.

How you can use MarineTraffic yourself to read the situation

You don't need to be an analyst to benefit from this information. Open MarineTraffic, zoom in on Hormuz and look at the vessels' status. Do you see many with 'anchored' or 'under way using engine' at slow speed? Then you know there's a queue. For me, this has become a daily ritual: before I buy anything that depends on shipping – yes, even before I fill up the car – I check the situation in Hormuz. It's an easier way to understand where inflation is heading than reading the Riksbank's minutes.

And don't forget to look at MarineTraffic in combination with the news feed. When you see that fighting is escalating north of Dubai and at the same time see tanker after tanker stopping, then you understand that this isn't just a temporary disruption. It's a structural change in trade routes. Several major shipping companies have already started calculating alternative routes, and that will show up in your shop prices in a few weeks.

I'm not saying the global economy will collapse tomorrow. But we are facing a period where transparency is power. And right now, MarineTraffic is the closest we get to an X-ray of global trade. Use it. Because next time you're at the pump and cursing the price per litre – at least you'll know why.