Weather Forecast: Autumn 2026 Starts with Heat, and the First Intense Cold Spell Already Has a Date to Arrive
If you were hoping for that pleasant cool weather right in the first week of autumn, you'll have to hold your horses a little longer. Autumn 2026 officially began this Friday, 20 March, but the weather forecast for the coming days is for plenty of heat and a scenario that's completely different from what we used to see.
At least, that's what the latest maps show. The season of falling leaves is set to arrive with above-average temperatures across most of the country. You know that famous "friagem" (cold spell) that was already making an appearance at the end of summer? Well, it's taken a break. Those living in the Southeast and Central-West, for example, will still face days with thermometers easily hitting over 30°C, as if summer is stubbornly refusing to leave.
Persistent heat and uneven rainfall
What's striking about this change of season is the inconsistency. The weather and climate forecast indicates that rainfall will be poorly distributed. While the South and parts of São Paulo might still see more consistent rain in the first few weeks, the interior of the Northeast and northern Minas Gerais will continue to see scarce water. And that's a concern, because it's been a while since we've seen a "normal" rainfall pattern like we used to.
To give you an idea, running the forecast models on the platforms we use to track wind and pressure, the scenarios show a persistent atmospheric block. In practice, this means a mass of hot air stays parked, preventing those cold fronts that usually bring true autumn weather right away from moving in.
So when does the real cold arrive?
The big question on everyone's mind: where's the cold? Well, I've been tracking the forecast models and the date is already on the radar. The first intense cold spell of autumn, the kind that makes you dig out your jacket and even enjoy a warm coffee in the late afternoon, is forecast to arrive in the first week of April. More specifically, between the 6th and the 9th.
That's when a polar air mass is expected to send temperatures plummeting in the South and cause a major temperature shock in the Southeast. But don't expect a gradual change, though. The trend is to go from scorching heat of nearly 35°C straight down to 15°C within hours. This kind of abrupt transition is typical of Brazilian autumn, but this year it promises to be more intense.
- South (RS, SC, PR): Pay close attention! The end of the month already starts with a temperature drop. Get your blankets and heavier coats ready for the first week of April. Frost may appear in the highland areas.
- Southeast (SP, RJ, MG, ES): The forecast is for heat to dominate the last days of March. The cold is only expected to arrive in force around the 7th or 8th of April, bringing that bone-chilling wind.
- Central-West and Northeast: The change will be felt less intensely, but nights will become milder, especially in higher-altitude areas like the Chapada Diamantina and the Brasília region.
If there's one thing I've learned following climate - weather forecasts all these years, it's that Brazilian autumn has become a bag of surprises. Nothing is like it was ten years ago. We need to keep an eye on constant updates, because this back-and-forth of hot and cold air masses can easily catch everyone off guard.
So, here's the tip: enjoy this last weekend of March with that leftover heat, because soon enough, that intense cold will come knocking. And when it knocks, it won't just be to say hi. It'll be here to stay. The Climate of Love? For now, it's only love for your blanket, because the weather outside will be like that.