Israel at a crossroads: last hours of tension with Iran and the impact on the heart of the Israeli people

When you’ve spent years covering the Middle East, you learn to read the silence between the headlines. And in the last few hours, that silence has been deafening. Just as Shabbat gave way to a new week, reality hit with a rawness few had anticipated. The echoes of the strikes on Iranian territory have shaken not only regional geopolitics, but also the mood of the Israeli people, who, once again, are clutching their phones for updates, holding their breath.

It all started to spiral in the early hours. The sirens didn’t sound in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem, but the threat was as real as the one that has hung in the air for weeks. According to sources close to the security cabinet, Israel’s response to the Islamic Republic’s earlier attack was surgical, yet heavy with symbolism. This is no minor exchange; it’s a fundamental shift in the chessboard.

The map of tension: from Dimona to the shipping lanes

What worries me most—and what I’m hearing in conversations with security analysts here in Madrid—is not just the military impact. It’s the economic fallout. Images coming in from southern Israel show a tense calm around strategic facilities, but the real battle right now is being fought over energy infrastructure hundreds of miles away. Information from the region suggests that the world’s largest LNG plant, located in a critical area, has been the target of indirect attacks, already sending tremors through European markets. Several European capitals are now assessing potential supply disruptions. This, my friends, hits close to home.

Meanwhile, on the ground, daily life tries to carry on with that peculiar mix of resilience and defiance that defines the region. It’s strange: just yesterday, before this erupted, I was checking the Israel Railways schedule for an acquaintance travelling to Haifa. It seemed like a normal day. Today, the advice is to avoid large gatherings and, of course, to follow Home Front Command instructions to the letter. The logistics of a nation on edge are impressive, but no less distressing for a society that has lived on this pendulum for decades.

The Western gaze and the diplomatic factor

The international community, as expected, has sprung into action. But the interesting part isn’t in the press releases; it’s in the moves we don’t see. Emergency talks between security cabinets revolve around a single question: where is the point of no return? In the diplomatic corridors of Brussels and Washington, the consensus is that we have entered a phase where the concept of “deterrence” has been blown apart. What was once a game of chess with unwritten rules has turned into a poker match where both sides are showing their cards in anger.

For the Israeli people, this means something very concrete: uncertainty. Not just about the next rocket that might fall, but about whether Ben Gurion Airport will keep running normally, or whether the economy—already strained by months of mobilisation—can withstand the strain of a prolonged escalation. And here’s a detail I find crucial: unity. Despite the deep internal divisions of recent months (which have filled front pages worldwide), in moments like this, that sense of belonging to the community, to the Israeli collective, sharpens. It’s the instinct for collective survival.

What can we expect in the coming hours?

Based on past patterns and the information still coming in, here’s what we can expect:

• Regional airspace closures: Several airlines are already cancelling routes to Tel Aviv, Amman and Beirut. If you have flights, check with your carrier.
• Reserve mobilisation: It wouldn’t be surprising if the security cabinet authorises additional call-ups to cover possible fronts. The Israeli military is on high alert.
• Pressure on energy markets: The price of crude oil and gas is set to spike when Asian markets open. This will have a direct impact on European pockets, and Spain will be no exception.

The world has changed in the last 48 hours, and Israel is at the epicentre of that change. This isn’t the first time the region has faced a challenge of this magnitude, but what’s new is the simultaneity of fronts: military, energy and diplomatic. As I write this, correspondents on the ground speak of an unusual buzz in the streets of Jerusalem—not panic, but a steely determination. The kind you recognise when a country knows it is, once again, forging its destiny in the fire.