Jerusalem on fire: From Baldwin IV to Beitar - why this city is shaking up the markets

It's happening again in the Middle East. Yesterday, the oil price shot up: news of a rocket attack with injuries in Jerusalem landed like a bombshell. The US is urging its citizens to leave Israel, and the British government is even pulling staff out of Iran. We are on the brink of what could become a serious regional explosion. But let me be clear about one thing: Jerusalem has never been just any city. It's a crossroads of civilisations, a spiritual magnet and, for those who know history, one of the greatest catalysts for global economic shocks.

The return of the crusader: history repeats itself

To understand the stock market, you need to know the scars of this city. Thousands of years ago, kings fought over it, and one of the most tragic figures from that time was Baldwin IV of Jerusalem - the leper king who, despite his physical decline, won legendary battles. His story is one of perseverance against all odds. That's exactly what I see reflected in the market now: investors want to believe in a peaceful solution, but reality is stubborn. The US authorisation to use British bases for targeted strikes on Iranian missiles isn't just a diplomatic signal; it's the prelude to a conflict that could affect oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz.

More than just stone and prayer: the Jerusalem Cross and Beitar

For the average Kiwi, Jerusalem is often a concept from the news or a religious book. But dig deeper, and you see the city lives through symbols. The Jerusalem Cross, for example, showing five crosses, harks back to the time when European knights tried to protect the city. Today, that protection mechanism translates into safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc. And then there's Beitar Jerusalem, the football club known for its ultranationalist fan base. When Beitar plays, tension often hangs in the air - no different from the geopolitical fields right now. The rockets fired at Jerusalem are aimed not just at a city, but at the heart of three world religions and, therefore, at the stability of the entire global economy.

What does this mean for your portfolio?

Let's lay it out clearly. A war with Iran is no local skirmish. It's a potential game-changer for energy markets. Iran, through its proxies, can disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf. The oil price won't just shoot up further; it will also fuel inflation worldwide. Central banks, which thought they could finally start cutting interest rates, will be forced to step in again. That affects mortgages, KiwiSaver funds, and the value of your savings.

• Energy stocks: Typically the first to rise during this kind of tension. But be selective: smaller companies with operations in the region are actually at risk.
• Gold: The classic safe haven. As tension escalates, we'll see the price climb towards its old records.
• Technology: Look at defence companies. The US and UK will need to replenish their stocks, and that means orders for the industry.

Don't forget the currency markets either. The dollar strengthens in times of crisis, but the euro could come under pressure due to our dependence on energy imports. It's a complex game, where ancient history and modern rocket attacks meet.

The invisible hand of conflict

What I've been telling my clients and readers for years: don't just look at the headlines, look at the deeper currents. The tensions around Jerusalem never disappeared; they simmer beneath the surface, waiting for a new eruption. The recent evacuations of US citizens and British personnel from Iran are not a false alarm. This is the moment when institutional investors reshuffle their positions. And just as Baldwin IV once rallied his knights for battle, today's leaders are calling on their allies. The difference is that the outcome is now decided not within castle walls, but on the oil market and the trading floors of New York, London, and Sydney.

The coming weeks will be crucial. Keep an eye on the price of a barrel of Brent crude, watch the rhetoric from Tehran and Washington, and realise that every news story about Jerusalem - whether it's a Beitar football match or a diplomatic agreement - could be a signal. Those who bury their heads in the sand now risk waking up to a completely different world of investing.