Ceasefire 2026: Mediation details to end the war in the Middle East | A guide to field developments

Good people, residents of Dubai and Abu Dhabi – those of you who have been following the clock with bated breath over the past forty days. The war that the Americans and Israelis ignited against Iran has taken a dangerous turn, and in the last few hours, developments have emerged that force us to reassess the situation entirely. Everyone is talking about a ceasefire, but is it close? Or is it just a fig leaf? Let’s take a quick review of the ceasefire and see exactly what is happening on the ground and in the negotiation rooms.

A race against time: details of the 45-day proposal

Let me put it bluntly – the situation cannot afford any more delays. Sources familiar with the Tehran-Washington negotiations, which are being actively mediated by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, say a ceasefire proposal for 45 days is on the table. The idea is that the first phase would be a “humanitarian truce” for a month and a half, during which the delegations would negotiate a permanent end to the war. The positive side is that this initiative could prevent the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Iran, while at the same time protecting the security of our energy facilities here in the Gulf.

The worrying side is that there is a “deadline” hanging by a sword. The US administration has set 6 April (that is, today) as the final date for reaching an agreement. Trump was blunt and harsh: if no deal is signed, Iran’s economic infrastructure (oil refineries and ports) will be at the mercy of bombardment.

So, how can we use this ceasefire to benefit the region? This concise guide helps you understand the dimensions of the deal. The truth is that any temporary truce would be a golden opportunity for de-escalation, especially given reports that Iran is ready to strike the energy facilities of neighbouring countries if the war continues. The goal of the 45 days is to buy time to craft a comprehensive agreement that ensures attacks are not repeated and fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

A heavy blow in Tehran: assassination of the intelligence chief

In a complex military and diplomatic development, the Iranian military establishment announced a shocking piece of news this morning: Brigadier General Majid Hadmi, head of the intelligence apparatus of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has died of his wounds following a US-Israeli strike. This man was one of the foremost security minds in responding to previous assassinations. His death represents a major security breach for Iran, and at the same time sends a message from Washington that targeted operations will continue regardless of the negotiating atmosphere.

Of course, Tehran did not stay silent. The naval forces of the Revolutionary Guard issued a harsh statement saying they are ready to impose a “new order” in the Gulf, and confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz “will never go back to how it was”. These statements would terrify any sensible person in Dubai or Riyadh, because regional stability is directly tied to smooth navigation through Hormuz.

On the ground: are we close to a tipping point?

Let’s do a quick review of the battlefield before we turn in. The US and Israel have escalated their attacks wildly, using the negotiating period to deliver “final” blows to missile sites. Despite the losses, intelligence reports say that half of Iran’s missile capabilities are still intact. This means that any ceasefire agreement will be very fragile unless it includes strict arrangements to freeze those missiles.

On the other side, there is a glimmer of hope: reports speak of a Pakistani mediation that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for US pledges not to target civilians.

Let’s summarise the most likely scenarios for the coming days:

• Scenario one (positive): Signing of the “Islamabad Declaration”, a 45-day truce that turns into lasting peace, and Hormuz returns to normal. This option would bring relief to our central bank governors.
• Scenario two (worrying): Negotiations fail after the decisive 48 hours, leading to a phase of targeting oil and civilian infrastructure. In this case, you would see oil prices shoot up 30% or more.
• Scenario three (proxy war): Operations focus on assassinating leaders (as happened today) and tit-for-tat strikes in territorial waters, with a continued state of neither war nor peace.

The bottom line: the whole world has its eyes on Muscat and Islamabad today. Either we wake up to news of a ceasefire that brings things back to the middle ground, or we enter a spiral of escalation with no good outcome. Stay with us, because the coming hours will shape the contours of our near future.